Bitcoin has been holding up well above $81,500 following a strong surge last weekend, and its weekly close landed at a four-month high. The cryptocurrency closed above its 50-week moving average (MA) for the first time since November 2025, setting the tone for further gains ahead, with analysts now waiting for a breakout above $83,000 to confirm a bull trend. The 50-week moving average smooths roughly a year of weekly closes and is widely used as a long-term trend gauge, which is why price action around it is closely tracked as a reference for the broader trend.

Weekly Close Hits Four-Month Highs and Reclaims Key Level

Bitcoin recorded its highest weekly close in four months, reclaiming the 50-week moving average for the first time since November 2025. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research said that historical data shows reclaiming this level has strongly confirmed that the bear market bottom is in. The development comes as Bitcoin registers a 29% gain over the last 35 days.

Another analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, noted that Bitcoin has successfully surged past $80,000 and is approaching the final liquidity cluster before it tests the May highs. Liquidity clusters are zones where large pools of resting orders accumulate, and traders monitor them for potential price reactions. According to the trader, most liquidity between current levels and that cluster has already been cleared, while another liquidity cluster below the start of the recent move is not currently relevant unless Bitcoin trades back toward that area.

In a follow-up post, Daan highlighted $83,000 as a key level to watch, saying a break above it could mark a shift in Bitcoin's market structure. He described the weekly candle as strong, noting that the price wick swept local liquidity into support before engulfing the previous week's candle. In his view, Bitcoin needs to continue higher into next week and break above $83,000 to turn the weekly market structure bullish.

Q3 Gains Point to Strongest Quarter Since 2024

So far in Q3 2026, Bitcoin has gained 36.7%, putting it on track for its strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2024. The move follows two consecutive negative quarters at the start of 2026, with the third quarter showing a sharp shift in momentum.

Separately, Mark Harvey stated that Bitcoin's power law model projects a $457,000 midpoint target for BTC over the next four years. Power law models fit Bitcoin's historical prices to a long-term trajectory, so such figures are model-derived projections grounded in past data rather than guaranteed outcomes. According to Harvey, if Bitcoin returns to that midpoint within four years, it would imply a 54% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

364-Day Cycle Points Toward $370,000, Analyst Says

Crypto analyst Crypto Patel said that Bitcoin is displaying a historical cycle pattern that could potentially point to a major price expansion. Citing backtesting data, the analyst noted that the cryptocurrency recorded 364-day gaps between its 2017 all-time high and its 2018 bottom, as well as between its 2021 peak and its 2022 bottom.

According to Patel, the span from the 2025 all-time high to the 2026 bottom also covers roughly 364 days, leading him to expect the cycle to repeat. Bitcoin is now retesting long-term trendline support after losing the key EC zone. If the historical pattern continues, he said, the next major expansion could target $370,000.

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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

This article is based on a report originally published by The Market Periodical.