Bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023, according to a September 22 research note from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The indicator sits near $80.5K, while Bitcoin trades around $86K. Because the 365-day moving average tracks the average price of the past year, it is widely used as a long-term trend line, and closes on either side of it are read as signals about where a cycle stands.

CryptoQuant said the crossover confirmed a new bull market. The firm identified the $88K-$90K range as the next major supply zone, while Bitcoin holds above support near $84,569. Analyst Ali Charts, citing the more than 50% gain since July, highlighted $100,000 and $104,765 as major resistance levels, with strong whale and ETF demand underpinning the move.

CryptoQuant Marks a New Cycle Signal

According to CryptoQuant, closes above the 365-day moving average confirmed Bitcoin's bull markets in 2019 and 2023, while closes below the indicator marked bear markets in late 2021 and November 2025. Until the latest move, the average had remained above Bitcoin's price. Within that framework, the reclaimed level functions as a cycle gauge: holding above it keeps the bull reading intact, while losing it has historically coincided with bear conditions.

The firm's Bull Score Index and Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator had already reached early bull stages by mid-August. Bitcoin also moved through the $76K-$81K-chain supply cluster, a range where long-term holders and seven-year-old OG coins had sold heavily this year.

The next supply cluster sits between $88K and $90K. That zone also aligns with the upper band of trader on-chain realized price, which sits near $90K. Supply clusters mark ranges where large amounts of coins previously changed hands, which is why CryptoQuant treats them as potential resistance.

Whale and ETF Demand in Focus

Ali Charts said Bitcoin has risen more than 50% since reaching $57,749 on July 1. He also reported 2,722 transactions worth more than $1 million. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated more than $1.60 billion worth of BTC over 72 hours. Spot ETFs hold bitcoin on behalf of investors through traditional brokerage accounts, making their flows a frequently cited gauge of institutional participation.

Ali Charts said large investors continued participating during the rally. Bitcoin currently sits above support near $84,569, a level where nearly 600,000 BTC previously traded. Another major demand zone sits near $77,000.

$100,000 Levels Enter the Bitcoin Price Map

Ali Charts identified $104,765 as the next major URPD resistance, with roughly 283,000 BTC previously traded around that level. URPD, or UTXO Realized Price Distribution, maps how much bitcoin last moved at each price level, showing where holders' cost bases are clustered. MVRV Pricing Bands place another resistance near $100,670, with the mean band representing the next key level highlighted by the analyst. MVRV compares bitcoin's market value with its realized value, framing where the market trades relative to the aggregate cost basis.

On the downside, the -0.5 MVRV band near $74,361 acts as major support. CryptoQuant also identified the 200-day moving average near $70.6K, while the 365-day moving average sits near $80.4K. These levels all sit below Bitcoin's current price near $86K.

With the 365-day moving average back in play, CryptoQuant has flagged the $88K-$90K range as the next resistance zone, while Ali Charts keeps $100,000 in focus for as long as Bitcoin remains above the $84,569 support. How Bitcoin behaves within the $88K-$90K supply cluster, and whether the $84,569 level continues to hold, are the near-term markers on both analysts' maps.