Bitcoin has recovered its momentum after reclaiming a long-term technical level that has historically appeared near the end of major bear markets. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $79,172, with a 24-hour trading volume of $95.18 billion and a market capitalization of $1.60 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency has gained 2.63% over the last 24 hours.

Bullish Signal Emerges Near Cycle Bottom

On August 24, crypto analyst Ali Martinez reported on X that Bitcoin's price is once again being supported by the 1,130-day simple moving average (SMA), a level that has played a critical role near market bottoms in previous cycles.

The 1,130-day SMA averages just over three years of daily closing prices, making it one of the slowest-moving trend indicators tracked on Bitcoin charts. Historically, bear-market lows including those of 2015, 2018–19, and 2022 formed near this band, which is why the current retest is drawing attention from chart watchers.

According to Martinez, the bull market for BTC has just begun after the retest of this moving average during each of the previous four market cycles. While history may not necessarily repeat itself, the observation adds weight to the view that Bitcoin's correction cycle may be drawing to a close.

Bitcoin Reclaims a Long-Term Market-Cycle Level

The latest move is especially significant because it comes after a prolonged stretch below the 1,130-day SMA. Bitcoin broke below the moving average on June 1, 2026, and traded beneath it for almost 80 days. During that period, BTC was heavily sold and reached extreme oversold conditions before rebounding.

The situation changed on August 20, when Bitcoin broke above $74,000 and reclaimed the 1,130-day SMA. Sustained holding above the indicator could now turn the previous resistance into a longer-term support zone, which is why the breakout matters beyond Bitcoin's short-term price increase.

If the historical pattern continues, the June decline could have marked the cycle low rather than the beginning of another extended downturn. That said, the reclaim should not be taken as an indicator that the bull run is already on. There have been instances where Bitcoin's breakouts failed amid major market corrections, and further price strength would be required to support the prevailing trend.

Bitcoin Trades Above the Upper Bollinger Band

Bitcoin's shorter-term technical outlook is also reflecting impressive upside strength. The upper Bollinger Band sits at $79,224.74, the middle band at $67,552.18, and the lower band at $55,879.62, according to TradingView data. With Bitcoin trading near $79,000, the price has crossed above the upper band.

Bollinger Bands are plotted as a moving average with bands set a number of standard deviations above and below it, widening when volatility rises and narrowing when it falls. Crossing above the upper band typically denotes unusual buying pressure on an asset. This can occur at the beginning of strong rallies, but it can also indicate a rally that has moved too fast, for which consolidation may be needed.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100, provides another useful signal. Bitcoin's RSI stands at 83.14, well above the traditional overbought threshold of 70, while the indicator's moving average sits at roughly 61.35.

An overbought RSI does not automatically imply that Bitcoin will drop. In an environment of strong bullish momentum, an instrument can remain overbought for quite some time. Even so, the elevated level increases the chances of a price correction in the event of weaker buying interest.

What Comes Next for BTC?

The immediate focus is on whether Bitcoin can stay above its reclaimed 1,130-day SMA and continue to hold the $79,000 level. Any significant price action toward and beyond $82,000 would provide more evidence supporting the thesis that the recent lows were the cycle low. A failure to keep the latest break higher could undermine the bullish setup.

In the meantime, the key shift is that Bitcoin has moved from defending long-term support to being tested against major resistance levels. Buyers hold a technical advantage from the reclaiming of the 1,130-day SMA. Increasing flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which opened for trading in January 2024 and have since become a significant channel for institutional BTC exposure, add another bullish element to the picture, alongside a move above other important indicators.

Any confirmation, however, will need follow-through. A clear breakout above the $82,000 area would make the case that the 2026 bear-market low is being left behind considerably more convincing.

This article contains market analysis and price predictions. These are not guarantees. Crypto markets are volatile. Always DYOR. Not financial advice.