Bitcoin briefly rebounded to $65,000 today before the rally lost steam, leaving the cryptocurrency pinned below a critical moving-average threshold even as broader macroeconomic conditions appeared favorable for risk assets.

While Bitcoin posts gains on the seven-day chart, bearish technical indicators continue to weigh on the outlook. Prediction market participants on Myriad are divided, with odds pointing toward further short-term downside—though stopping short of pricing in a worst-case scenario.

Macro Tailwind Goes Un seized

The U.S. labor market delivered what could have been a catalyst. Employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, marking the first net payroll loss since the pandemic-era recovery and falling dramatically short of the 95,000 gain that economists had forecast. As Decrypt reported Friday, markets interpreted the data as a reason for the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate changes, and Treasury yields declined in response.

That environment would typically fuel a risk-on rally. Bitcoin has historically responded positively to signs of dovish Fed policy, particularly during prior cycles when rate-pause expectations took hold. Instead, Bitcoin's latest daily candle shows the price tapping its 50-day moving average before rolling back below that level.

Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, the picture is similarly mixed. Bitcoin gained 1.17% over seven days, making it one of the steadier large-cap assets—trailing only BNB and Solana—yet it remains unable to close above its own moving-average ceiling.

Technical Setup: What the Charts Show

Bitcoin is trading at $64,261, down 0.92% on the day, sitting just beneath the $64,568 support level. The market continues to carry a death cross—a chart pattern in which the 50-day moving average sits below the 200-day moving average, widely regarded by traders as a bearish signal. Death crosses have appeared at multiple inflection points in Bitcoin's history, though their predictive reliability has been mixed; some have preceded extended drawdowns while others have faded into consolidation.

Since the May peak near $80,000, when traders briefly anticipated the formation of a golden cross (the inverse of a death cross), Bitcoin has recorded a series of lower highs and lower lows, trending downward through June and July.

The move from the $66,921 swing high down to the $62,216 low established the current structure. Price bounced off the $62,216 floor and attempted to reclaim the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA)—the lower boundary of the red EMA cloud—but stalled and fell back. The pattern is consistent with a classic bull trap: sufficient upward movement to attract buyers, but not enough momentum to sustain gains.

Exponential moving averages smooth average price over a defined period. When the shorter-term average trades below the longer-term one, it signals that the medium-term trajectory remains downward. Bulls needed a daily close above the EMA50 to begin reversing that signal, which did not materialize.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 50—perfectly neutral. The RSI is a momentum oscillator on a 0–100 scale, where readings above 70 indicate overbought conditions and below 30 indicate oversold conditions. At 50, neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear advantage.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator has been active for 22 days, with momentum ticking upward. Squeeze formations—when volatility compresses into a narrow band—frequently resolve in the direction of the preceding trend, which in this case is downward. However, the indicator signals that a significant move may be approaching without specifying the probable direction.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) sits at 10.6. ADX measures trend strength irrespective of direction; readings below 20 indicate a directionless, choppy market prone to false breakouts and stop hunts. At 10.6, the trend lacks conviction, though the directional indicators tilt bearish, with DI- sitting above DI+, consistent with the failed EMA50 reclamation.

Prediction Market Outlook

Prediction markets offer an additional perspective, and the sentiment leans cautious. On Myriad—a prediction market platform built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan—the market for Bitcoin's next major move prices a decline to $55,000 at 64.6% odds, compared with 35.4% odds for a rally to $84,000.

Monthly resolution books provide further granularity. In the "BTC Highs in August" event, the $65,000 level has already resolved as Yes after Bitcoin touched it earlier this month. Above that threshold, odds diminish sharply: $67,500 carries 48% odds, $70,000 sits at 25%, $72,500 at 11%, and $75,000 at just 5%. Predictors appear to believe the August high has largely been established.

The "BTC Lows in August" book presents a more nuanced picture. A dip to $60,000 is priced at 35%, while a deeper breakdown to $55,000 carries only 8% odds, and $52,500 sits at 4%. This suggests market participants are more concerned about a pullback toward $60,000 than a collapse below $55,000.

This aligns with the technical setup. The death cross and the failed EMA200 reclamation argue against a swift return to $80,000, but the support in the golden zone and the low odds assigned to $55,000 suggest the base around $62,000 is holding. The combination of low ADX and an extended squeeze also indicates that the market may be coiling for a directional resolution, a setup that historically tends to produce sharper moves once a breakout or breakdown confirms.

Bull scenario: A daily close above the golden zone at $64,568, followed by a breakthrough of the EMA500 that capped the previous bounce, could open a path toward the $66,921 swing high. This would require the rate-cut narrative driven by the jobs data to push Bitcoin through the EMA cloud rather than merely testing its lower boundary.

Bear scenario: A loss of the $62,216 swing low would confirm the lower-low sequence and expose the $60,000 round-number level, with $58,000 as the next support shelf below. The death cross, negative Squeeze momentum, and failed EMA50 reclamation all point in this direction.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.