Bitcoin climbed back toward $81,700 on Friday, stabilizing after a technology-led selloff hit risk assets the previous session. The recovery came despite heavy outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded roughly $635 million in net withdrawals on Thursday, according to data from SoSoValue. That reversed a three-day stretch that had pulled in more than $1 billion combined.

Bitcoin was up about 0.5% since midnight UTC as the rebound took hold. Oil near multi-month highs and next week's Federal Reserve meeting keep interest-rate expectations at the center of the market's focus.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Flip the Flow Tape

The spot Bitcoin ETF complex swung sharply from accumulation to distribution. SoSoValue's Thursday figures put net withdrawals near $635 million, cutting short a three-day inflow streak worth more than $1 billion.

The funds, cleared by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2024, hold bitcoin directly and issue shares that trade through ordinary brokerage accounts, giving investors exposure without handling wallets or custody themselves. Share creations and redemptions are matched by purchases and sales of the underlying bitcoin, so a net-withdrawal day means funds collectively sold more of the asset than they bought.

Institutional positioning is back in focus as Bitcoin attempts to hold the mid-$81,000 range. Sustained outflows could add pressure if equity markets remain soft, while renewed inflows would give the bounce firmer support. Either way, the daily flow prints now serve as a short-term gauge of demand rather than a background detail.

Tech Selloff Sets Up the Bounce

Thursday's decline tracked a broader retreat in U.S. equities, with technology shares leading the weakness. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%, its steepest single-day drop since June, raising fresh questions about appetite for risk assets. Bitcoin has in recent years often traded in step with rate-sensitive growth stocks, a link that has made Nasdaq-led sessions a recurring stress point for the asset.

Asian markets were mixed on Friday as traders digested Wall Street's move. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.3%, China's CSI 300 gained 1.7%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.25%. Bitcoin's modest rebound left participants weighing whether Thursday's selling would carry into Fed week.

Crude oil adds another pressure point. Brent crude traded near $113 a barrel, and elevated energy prices can keep inflation sticky while strengthening the case for borrowing costs to stay higher. Traders are watching oil alongside ETF flow prints ahead of the Fed.

Fed Week: Hold Expected, December Still Open

Attention now turns to the Federal Open Market Committee's October 27-28 meeting. Market pricing implies roughly an 80% chance that officials keep the benchmark rate in the 3.75% to 4.0% range. December is less settled while inflation remains part of the debate.

September's rate increase formed part of the Fed's response to sticky prices, and officials have pushed back on bets for back-to-back hikes even after stronger September inflation data. The October statement and press conference will be parsed for clues on whether another 25-basis-point move in December stays on the table. Higher long-term yields have already offset some of the support that strong equity markets had been providing.

For Bitcoin holders, the near-term picture is straightforward: the bounce followed a tech shock and a heavy ETF outflow day, and the next test is whether Fed week brings calm or another risk-off leg.