Bitcoin climbed from roughly $63,500 to above $80,000, a move supported by spot buying, according to QCP Capital. Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew approximately $2.8 billion in inflows across eight sessions, while Bitcoin futures open interest declined from about 646,000 BTC to roughly 588,000 BTC and funding rates stayed contained — a pattern the firm reads as pointing to limited leverage, short covering, and genuine spot demand behind the rally.

The distinction matters for how sustainable such a rally may be: advances fueled heavily by borrowed money have historically proven vulnerable to sharp liquidation cascades when prices reverse, whereas moves driven by spot accumulation leave fewer overextended positions to unwind. Falling open interest alongside a rising price can also indicate that short sellers were forced to close positions rather than new leveraged longs piling in.

QCP places Bitcoin within an $81,000-$86,000 range as Treasury buyback plans and persistent inflation shape the broader market backdrop. Crypto markets have increasingly traded in sympathy with macro catalysts — rate expectations, Treasury liquidity and risk appetite in equities — a linkage that has grown tighter since the introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 opened the asset class to a wider pool of traditional investors.

Spot Flows Lead Bitcoin's Move

QCP noted that Bitcoin briefly traded above $81,000 during the advance. BTC-denominated futures open interest fell from about 646,000 BTC in mid-August to roughly 588,000 BTC. At the same time, funding rates remained below levels typically associated with crowded long positions.

Options positioning also shifted as Bitcoin moved higher. Call skew increased, while the put-call ratio stayed below one ahead of Jackson Hole. A put-call ratio under one indicates traders were pricing in more upside than downside exposure, a tilt often watched as a gauge of positioning sentiment heading into major macro events.

Treasury Plans Meet Sticky Inflation

The wider market backdrop remains tied to U.S. rates and long-term Treasury liquidity. On Aug. 19, the Treasury announced larger liquidity-support buybacks for 10-to-30-year securities. Starting Sept. 9, the Treasury plans at least $4 billion per operation, up from a previous maximum size of $2 billion. Buybacks of longer-dated securities are aimed at improving liquidity in a part of the Treasury market that has shown signs of strain, and added liquidity in traditional markets can spill over into risk assets including crypto.

Inflation, however, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. July core PCE rose 0.2% month over month, with the annual rate holding at 3.3%. July headline PCE also rose 0.2% monthly and reached 3.7% annually. Markets currently price roughly a 35% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, and three policymakers dissented at July's meeting in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. Fed Chair Warsh was scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole at 10 p.m. SGT. The annual Jackson Hole symposium is a regular venue for Federal Reserve chairs to signal policy direction, making it a focal point for traders across asset classes.

$81K-$86K Zone

QCP placed Bitcoin within an $81,000 to $86,000 area, with about $83,300 sitting inside that range.

In corporate news, Nvidia reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, up 106% year over year. Its Data Center revenue reached $89 billion, up 117%. The company guided for approximately $108 billion in revenue next quarter. Nvidia shares subsequently rose about 8.7%, lifting broader technology stocks — strength in megacap tech that frequently accompanies firmer sentiment in other risk assets, including digital ones.