Bitcoin developers should set aside their reservations and publish a clear plan to harden the network against quantum computing attacks, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. He argues that once they commit to such a roadmap, Bitcoin's price would react swiftly. The concern centers on Bitcoin's reliance on the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor's algorithm could exploit to derive private keys from exposed public keys.

"If the Bitcoin core team says in two or three months: 'this is our roadmap, we're gonna solve it in the next two years, these are the rough steps we'll take,' that would be amazing news," Edwards told Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets program. "I think that would discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight."

The debate over whether Bitcoin's cryptography should be upgraded to withstand quantum attacks has long divided the Bitcoin community. Some contend that sweeping protocol changes would run counter to Bitcoin's foundational principles. Others maintain that functional quantum computers remain years away and that a hasty fix could introduce greater risks than the threat itself. The challenge is compounded by the fact that not all Bitcoin addresses face equal exposure: addresses that have never spent funds keep their public keys hidden, offering a degree of natural protection, while addresses with reused or exposed public keys are more vulnerable.

A Roadmap as an Upside Catalyst

Edwards, who regularly discusses quantum computing risks with his 132,800 followers on X, has previously suggested that a concrete roadmap from Bitcoin developers could lift the price "very quickly." He reiterated that view, predicting gains "probably" in the double digits.

He described the quantum question as "somewhat counterintuitively an upside catalyst potential," noting that the issue remains on the back burner and that existing Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) are "not really" a genuine solution.

Uncertainty around quantum risk has weighed on investor sentiment, with some analysts attributing it as a contributing factor to Bitcoin's price decline. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, recently flagged quantum computing as a potential long-term risk in disclosures for spot Bitcoin ETF investors. The broader cybersecurity landscape has already begun adapting: the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) published its first post-quantum cryptography standards in August 2024, providing a reference framework that other networks and institutions are beginning to adopt.

Edwards pointed out that several other blockchain networks have already laid out their own quantum-resistant roadmaps, and Bitcoin could benefit from following suit.

Based in Melbourne, Australia, Edwards founded Capriole Investments in 2019. The hedge fund specializes in Bitcoin and digital assets, employing quantitative models, artificial intelligence, and macroeconomic analysis to inform its crypto market strategy.

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Bitcoin Trading 40% Below Fair Value, Edwards Estimates

A growing chorus of observers warns that the quantum threat could intensify if Bitcoin developers do not implement the necessary network changes before 2030. Ethereum, for its part, is on track to complete its post-quantum overhaul by 2029 — a milestone likely to draw attention to Bitcoin's own readiness.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $65,270, roughly 49% below its October all-time high of $126,100. Source: CoinMarketCap.

Edwards estimates that Bitcoin currently sits about 40% below what he considers its fair value based on energy value, while attributing roughly a 30% discount to quantum risk. "That means it's more than priced in," he said.

He clarified that this assessment reflects the quantum risk based on currently available information — not unforeseen developments that could accelerate the threat and drive prices lower.

His estimate draws on timelines published by leading quantum computing companies and researchers regarding the arrival of "Q Day" — the point at which quantum computers become powerful enough to derive private keys from public keys. "That sits in that four to five year range, give or take a few years," Edwards said.

He also factored in the time Bitcoin would need to develop and deploy a solution. BIP-360 author Ethan Heilman has estimated that such an effort could take years.

"If we're gonna get into maths, it's pretty simple; it is just an aggregation of those expert opinions. So it's based on that, and based on the fact that there's currently no solution for Bitcoin," Edwards explained.

The risk profile, he noted, is not static. "That risk again falls significantly if there's a solution or if there's a roadmap to a solution. But it also could grow if tomorrow we find out that Google is, you know, twice as far ahead on their roadmap to Q Day or some other major company," he said.

"It's priced in today, but it's not to say that it can't get worse or better. It's just I think it's skewed more probabilistically to the upside from here," Edwards concluded.

Source: Charles Edwards on X

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