Bitcoin has pulled back to around $78,000 after touching a three-month high of $81,500 earlier this week. The move marks a roughly 31% gain since August 1, when BTC was trading at $62,229.

The pullback has not changed the broader picture for larger holders. On-chain data shows wallets holding larger amounts of BTC have been accumulating during the advance. Smaller wallets, those holding between 0.1 and 1 BTC, posted an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982, showing they have been selling into the rally. The Accumulation Trend Score, a Glassnode metric, ranges from -1 to 1 and reflects whether a cohort is net adding to or reducing its positions. This kind of split — whales buying while retail sells — is often seen as a sign that coins are moving from short-term holders to longer-term investors, historically a pattern associated with a maturing supply base rather than distribution.

On-chain analyst Ali Charts highlighted the divergence on X:

BITCOIN: RETAIL SELLS. WHALES BUY.

Bitcoin is up 31%, and retail has been selling the entire rally.

Since August 1, BTC has jumped from $62,229 to $81,500, while wallets holding 0.1–1 BTC recorded an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982.

At the same time, whales holding 100+… pic.twitter.com/qIIiAPEXEY

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) August 28, 2026

Dormant Wallets Stir

Six wallets dormant since 2011–2014 moved 553.59 BTC, worth around $40 million, between August 16 and August 26. Five of those sent coins to addresses with no known exchange links. Only one transferred 40 BTC to Boerse Stuttgart Digital.

Movements from long-dormant wallets are closely watched because coins held since Bitcoin's early years belong to cohorts with very low cost bases, and their reactivation can signal intent to sell. In this case, the destination of five of the six transfers remains unknown, meaning it is not clear whether the coins are headed for exchanges.

Galaxy Research noted that dormant Bitcoin activity in Q2 2026 fell to its lowest level since 2022. The full year is on track for less than half the dormant activity seen in 2025.

BTC and Gold: A Shifting Correlation

Grayscale data shows Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has risen above 50%, up from near zero at the start of 2026. Its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to around 33%, from above 60% earlier.

The shift matters because Bitcoin’s correlation with tech-heavy equity indexes was a defining feature of the 2022–2024 cycle, when BTC often traded in sympathy with rate-sensitive growth stocks. A stronger link to gold would align Bitcoin more closely with its frequently cited “digital gold” narrative, though correlations can revert as macro conditions change.

This shift has come alongside renewed concern about U.S. fiscal policy, with federal debt surpassing $40 trillion. That environment has pushed investors toward scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin.

Crypto analyst Ted Pillows noted on X that BTC faced a sharp rejection at the $81,500 level and that the next key support sits at $74,000–$75,000. He said if that level holds, Bitcoin is likely to resume its uptrend.

bitcoin:native had a sharp rejection from the $81,500 level.

Now, the next major support level for Bitcoin is $74,000-$75,000 which could get retested next.

If this holds, BTC will resume its uptrend. pic.twitter.com/wB1scQL0pC

— Ted (@TedPillows) August 29, 2026

Key Levels to Watch

The most important level for bulls right now is $73,880, where the -0.5 MVRV pricing band sits. MVRV, or market-value-to-realized-value, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the aggregate cost basis of all coins; its pricing bands are used to map historically undervalued and overheated zones. Holding above this keeps the recovery structure intact.

A daily close above $84,000, backed by strong volume, would open the door toward $100,000 — the level identified by both technical analysis and the MVRV bands as the next major target.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently said Bitcoin has a “good chance” of reaching $100,000 by year-end. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has said Bitcoin could eventually overtake gold’s total market cap. Gold’s total market capitalization is estimated at well over $20 trillion, while Bitcoin’s stands at a fraction of that, underscoring how far the comparison stretches.

BTC was trading at $78,062 as of August 29, up 0.9% on the day.

Source: CoinCentral