Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $81,558 on Saturday, down 0.73% on the day, capping a volatile week in which the asset briefly slipped below $80,000 before recovering. Earlier in the week, BTC touched a weekly high above $84,000 but struggled to hold those gains as stronger U.S. economic data fed expectations of further Federal Reserve rate increases.

Bitcoin's sensitivity to Federal Reserve policy has made rate expectations one of the most closely watched macro inputs for the asset, since higher rates lift the appeal of yield-bearing instruments relative to non-yielding assets like crypto. That linkage put the week's central-bank commentary squarely in focus for traders.

Warsh Comments Ease Rate-Hike Fears

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh avoided any mention of further rate hikes during a discussion with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. "I don't prejudge meetings," he said.

Markets read the tone as dovish. CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which derives market-implied rate odds from futures pricing, showed the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in October at 15%, down from 27% a day earlier. Economist Robin Brooks said the October meeting is "pretty much off the table" for a hike, pointing to fears of stress in the AI sector as a factor making markets more receptive to a dovish message.

U.S. stocks were mixed on Friday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.13% before settling at 5.07%. In an X post on Thursday, The Kobeissi Letter said stock weakness has been the only source of bond-yield corrections since August and that equities may be in a "bull-bear" market.

Crypto markets steadied on Friday alongside a rebound in South Korean stocks. The KOSPI Composite Index closed at 5,668, up 2% on the day but down 8.3% for the week.

ETF Flows Remain Uneven

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $82.39 million net outflows on October 16, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for $71.78 million of that total, according to data shared by Wu Blockchain:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Recorded $82.39 Million in Net Outflows, While Spot Ethereum ETFs Saw $69.68 Million in Net Outflows on October 16ET). On October 16 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $82.39 million, led by BlackRock's IBIT with $71.78 million in net…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 17, 2026

Flows were uneven across the week. Funds saw $65.4 million in outflows on October 12, followed by $175.7 million in inflows on October 13 and withdrawals of about $261.4 million on October 14. Because spot ETFs channel institutional money directly into Bitcoin, the daily flow totals have become a widely tracked gauge of institutional demand for the asset.

Ethereum investment products also saw $69.68 million in net outflows on October 16.

Chart Levels in Focus

On the chart, BTC/USD held most of its reclaimed ground after bouncing at $80,000 on Thursday. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin posted another daily close above the 50 EMA and 50 SMA — two moving averages traders use to gauge trend direction — and said buyers remain in control while BTC holds above $80,500:

Another daily close above the 50 EMA and 50 SMA for Bitcoin. $BTC buyers are still in control, and as long as BTC holds above $80,500, the upside remains the max pain.

— Ted (@TedPillows) October 16, 2026

The level to watch next is $80,500, with $83,000 as the upside target.

Elsewhere in the sector, Circle reported about $1.4 billion in first-half 2026 revenue and is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on November 4.

With the October Fed meeting and Circle's earnings report still ahead on the calendar, traders are now watching whether renewed ETF demand can lift Bitcoin toward $83,000, while further withdrawals could add pressure on the $80,000 level.

Source: CoinCentral