Bitcoin is trading near $80,100 on Monday, essentially flat on the day, after slipping below its 50-day moving average ahead of this week's Federal Reserve decision. Binance's BTC/USDT daily chart on TradingView places the price roughly 8% below its recent swing high near $87,400.

What is known

• Bitcoin trades below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
• Futures markets price a 90.6% chance of a Fed hold.
• The range ceiling sits at $84,000-$85,000.
• The relative strength index (RSI) is near 41.5, below its signal line.

What remains open

• Whether $80,000 survives a daily close.
• What the Fed signals for December.
• How the midterms reshape crypto policy.
• Which side of the range breaks.

The 50-Day SMA Has Changed Sides

Bitcoin's failure to hold momentum above its $84,000-$85,000 ceiling set off a pullback that has now carried the price below its 50-day SMA near $81,850, an average that has begun to flatten. The 50-day SMA, which smooths roughly two months of daily closing prices, is one of the most widely watched trend gauges in technical analysis. That moving average served as the launchpad for the entire multi-month advance, so losing it leaves bulls without their main support.

The average now acts as resistance, sitting just above the 0.236 Fibonacci level near $81,600. Fibonacci retracements like this one are drawn from fixed ratios that traders use to map how deep a pullback can run inside a larger trend, and they are watched as zones where resting orders tend to cluster. A recovery would require a confirmed daily close back above both the average and the $82,500 pivot. Until that happens, rallies may meet selling from buyers who entered at higher prices.

Momentum and the Layers of Support

The RSI sits near 41.5, below its signal line near 47.6, giving sellers mild short-term control. The indicator — a momentum oscillator scored from 0 to 100, with readings below conventionally labeled oversold — remains well clear of oversold territory, however, which points to steady selling rather than capitulation.

Below $80,000, support is layered rather than concentrated in a single level. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $78,000 comes first, followed by the 0.5 Fib and the rising 100-day SMA around $75,000-$75,650. That $78,000-$75,000 shelf is where the correction would be expected to halt if the larger uptrend remains intact. Beneath it, the 200-day SMA and the 0.618 Fib around $72,150-$73,030 mark the zone where a pullback would begin to look like a change in trend.

The Fibonacci levels are measured from the $62,712 base to the $87,426 swing high.

A Stalled Range Meets a Packed Week

Between the $84,000-$85,000 ceiling and the $80,000 floor, Bitcoin has a band of roughly 6% to work with, and it now sits at the bottom of that range as three major events arrive within eight days. Because crypto trades continuously with no closing bell, scheduled events like these are among the few catalysts the market can prepare for in advance.

Friday's options expiry matters because contracts of that size can add volatility in the days around settlement, as traders close or roll positions near key strike prices.

What the Fed Is Expected to Do

The CME FedWatch tool, which translates live pricing of federal funds futures into implied policy odds, puts the odds of a hold at 90.6%, which would keep the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, against a 9.4% chance of a quarter-point hike. A month ago, a hike was the favored outcome at 64.2%.

The federal funds rate sets a baseline for borrowing costs and liquidity conditions across financial markets, which is why its path is followed by traders well beyond crypto. With a hold almost fully priced in, the market reaction will likely hinge on what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signals about December, where markets still view another hike as the likelier outcome. His move away from forward guidance leaves investors with little to go on until he speaks.

The Midterm Factor

Six days after the Fed decision, Americans vote in the midterm elections. Held halfway through a president's term, the midterms put every one of the House's 435 seats and roughly a third of the Senate on the ballot, making them the first nationwide vote since 2024. Bitcoin fell in each of the last three midterm years and rallied the year after — a history that has traders asking whether the pattern will repeat in 2026.

This cycle also carries a direct policy angle. Crypto legislation has stalled in Congress, and crypto-related companies had spent about $189 million on the 2026 election cycle by June 30, according to a Public Citizen analysis cited by Reuters. Control of the relevant congressional committees could shape that agenda well into 2027, since committee leadership determines which bills get drafted, debated and sent to the floor.

The Case for Patience, and the Case for Caution

The case for patience rests on market structure: the longer moving averages are still rising beneath the price, and none of the layered supports below $80,000 has been tested yet. The case for caution rests on timing, with Bitcoin pressed against its floor just as the Fed decision, a large options expiry and the midterms land within a week of one another.

Two Daily Closes to Watch This Week

These are scenarios, not forecasts. Bitcoin sits on $80,000, with the 50-day SMA and the 0.236 Fib about 2% overhead.

Close above $82,500: A daily close back above the 50-day SMA and the $82,500 pivot could neutralize the breakdown and reopen the top of the range near $84,100, with the $87,400 swing high beyond it.

Close below $80,000: A confirmed daily close under the psychological level could extend the correction toward the 0.382 Fib and then the 100-day SMA.

The bigger picture: even a test of the $78,000-$75,000 shelf would keep this move a correction. The trend question only opens below the 200-day SMA.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile.

Source: Coindoo