Bitcoin surged after a sharply weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report upended expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, with odds of an October rate hike plunging to roughly 14% from 70% earlier this week.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization last traded at $86,152, about 1.4% below its $87,354 September high. With bullish signals building on the charts, the question traders are asking is where Bitcoin goes next.

Bad News for the Economy Is, Once Again, Good News for Risk Assets

The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 84,000 economists expected, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The two previous months were revised down by a combined 60,000, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.

Payrolls data carries this weight because the Fed's dual mandate covers both inflation and employment, making each release one of the most closely watched inputs to rate expectations — and one of the fastest ways to reprice assets. Wall Street's reading: the pressure to keep hiking rates just eased, which generally bodes well for risk assets like Bitcoin, since lower expected policy rates shrink the appeal of yield-bearing cash relative to a non-yielding asset. The largest cryptocurrency rose sharply following the macro moves, and the charts suggest Bitcoin could go higher still during the month affectionately known as "Uptober," a nickname earned through October's historically strong returns for the asset.

The Fed Backdrop

Before diving into the data, some context traders and investors should know: The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point on September 16 in a unanimous vote, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. It was the first hike since 2023. Higher rates mean less "cheap money" for investments, but Bitcoin shook off the increase far better than Wall Street did.

Since then, officials have been tapping the brakes. New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday there was "no need for urgency," and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Thursday that policymakers may need more time before deciding whether to raise rates again.

After the jobs report, CME FedWatch odds of a hike at the October meeting dropped sharply, falling to 14% from 70% earlier in the week. Prediction markets Kalshi, Polymarket, and Myriad agree, pricing roughly 80% odds of a hold on October 28.

Crypto Market Snapshot

Crypto liked what it heard. Total crypto market capitalization is above $3 trillion, up 2.5% in 24 hours, and the Fear & Greed Index reads 71, firmly in "greed" territory. ETF flows were green at +$102 million on the day, and Bitcoin dominance sits at 59.1%.

For readers parsing those figures: the Fear & Greed Index is a composite sentiment gauge running from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed), Bitcoin dominance measures the largest asset's share of total crypto market value, and the daily ETF tally tracks U.S. spot Bitcoin funds — approved in January 2024 and since a widely watched proxy for institutional demand.

Bitcoin Price: Staring at the Ceiling

Bitcoin is up 1.57% on the day, trading at $86,152.75 after opening at $84,824.05. Today's candle has already tested a high of $87,173.15, just shy of the $87,354.33 September high that marks the top of the range — the yearly resistance bulls need to clear. The low was $84,492.18.

That September high came at the end of a rally from the $74,977.57 swing low, a 16.5% climb. Since then, Bitcoin has been moving sideways around that mark. Here is what the indicators say about whether it breaks through.

The Average Directional Index (ADX) measures how strong a trend is, regardless of direction. Readings above 25 confirm a real trend, and BTC sits at 41.8. The directional lines show buyers (DI+) above sellers (DI-), so this is a strong uptrend, not a choppy market. Very high ADX readings also mean a trend is mature.

The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) track average prices, giving more weight to recent days. The chart shows the fast 50-day EMA above the slower 200-day, a bullish setup that usually means short-term momentum is outpacing the longer trend. The shaded cloud beneath price has also stayed green since mid-August, acting as a cushion.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) gauges buying pressure on a scale of 0 to 100. At 68.1, it signals strong momentum but is knocking on the 70 line, where traders tend to start taking profits.

The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is "off" with a positive reading of 2.2, which means the compression that preceded this move is over and volatility has been released to the upside. Bitcoin's price sits at 78.4% of the band range, in the upper half.

The Trade-Offs

The technical picture leans firmly bullish, but the setup has caveats. RSI is near overbought, and the macro backdrop is not exactly dovish: a December hike is still the market's base case, and yields remain elevated.

Traders will want to see a daily close above $87,354 with ADX holding up before calling it a breakout, while the Fed's October 28 meeting is the next big macro test. The 14% hike odds are a snapshot, not a settled fact — market-implied probabilities can shift again with any fresh economic data or Fed commentary in the run-up.

---

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are for informational only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.