October—known in crypto circles as "Uptober"—is supposed to be the month Bitcoin delivers its biggest gains to investors, but the crypto market looks poised to flip the script once again. Instead of the historically reliable sequence of a "Red September" followed by an Uptober rally, Bitcoin is selling off in October and has now given back nearly half of its September gains. Ironically, the same trend-breaking pattern played out last year.

Bitcoin fell as low as $81,749.83 on Thursday, undercutting the $82,776.30 floor flagged a day earlier, and was last trading near $82,486. Over the past 24 hours, the asset slid 2.67% to $81,125.

The slide comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs bled cash: the funds lost $484.9 million on Oct. 7, their worst day since June, while 87.5% of the roughly $429 million in crypto positions liquidated over 24 hours were long bets.

Uptober is turning red so far, but the charts suggest Bitcoin has a ways to go before things get truly scary.

Macro headwinds weigh on Bitcoin

Wall Street retreated from record highs on Wednesday as Brent crude hovered near $100 a barrel and Treasury yields stayed near their highest levels since 2002. Adding to the pressure, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting showed most officials expect another rate hike before year end.

Rate expectations sit high on crypto traders' watchlists because higher yields lift the return on cash-like instruments and tend to tighten the liquidity conditions that risk assets—from stocks to Bitcoin—trade on.

These headwinds have been weighing on Bitcoin for some time now. Yesterday's downward move is slowing down but not stopping: Bitcoin sold off alongside stocks and gold, yet still flagged a bullish daily chart against a bearish four-hour chart. That split remains in place today.

Bitcoin price: the daily trend holds, with less cushion

Today's daily candle opened at $83,310.16 and was unable to push much higher, barely touching $83,475.78 before dropping to lows around $81,337, down 2.37%. That low undercut the $82,776.30 floor flagged yesterday and left BTC below a short-term price zone at $82,626.41.

Bitcoin had moved sideways between roughly $83,000 and $87,000 for more than two weeks after peaking at $87,354.33 on Sept. 21, and now trades about 5.6% below that high.

The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength regardless of direction, confirms a trend with readings above 25. The daily ADX stands at 40.7, down from 42.8 yesterday, and while buying pressure (+DI) is still ahead of selling pressure (-DI), bullish sentiment is slowly cooling.

The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), which weighs an asset's price over the last 50 days, remains above the 200-day EMA—a configuration traders read as an intact long-term uptrend. The golden cross, arguably the quintessential bullish signal in technical analysis, remains in play on the daily trend but is starting to recede on intraday timeframes as Bitcoin approaches the 200-day EMA line.

Momentum is softer than trend strength suggests. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which gauges buying and selling pressure on a 0-to-100 scale, fell to 45.8 from 52.5 yesterday, dipping just below the 50 line that separates bullish from bearish momentum. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator remains on, meaning volatility is compressed like a coiled spring ahead of a bigger move.

ETF outflows and liquidations

Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $484.9 million on Oct. 7, their worst day since June, per ETF flow data on Decrypt. That single session erased about 81% of the $595.3 million that had flowed in over the previous nine days and cut the 10-day net to $110.4 million. Cumulative net inflows still stand at $57.8 billion, so it is a dent, not an exodus, so far.

Flows are read as a barometer of institutional demand because spot ETFs hold Bitcoin directly and trade like stocks in ordinary brokerage accounts, so each daily print tallies net buying or selling through that channel.

Leverage amplified the move. Roughly $429 million in positions were liquidated over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass, with 87.5% of them longs. A liquidation occurs when an exchange force-closes a leveraged trade that can no longer cover its losses, and the resulting forced selling can push prices lower still.

Bitcoin accounted for $135.51 million of liquidations and Ethereum $96.14 million, with nearly half of the total—$202.24 million—hitting in the last four hours. That is less than half of yesterday's $969 million, yet it shows longs are still getting flushed.

What to watch next

A daily close below $82,626.41 would confirm a break of a weak support and the continuation of a short bearish correction, while a close back above it would keep the multi-week range in play.

Below sits the golden zone between $81,165.95 and $79,705.49, where pullbacks within uptrends often draw buyers; the daily trend band's upper edge at $79,661.95 lands within about $44 of that zone's lower border.

Oil and Hormuz shipping headlines (the strait is a key transit point for global crude), Treasury yields, daily ETF flows, and the Fed's Oct. 27–28 meeting—where a hike looks unlikely—are the next catalysts to watch.