Bitcoin's price slipped further on Monday, sliding 2% over a 24-hour period to trade at a little over $82,423. The largest cryptocurrency by market value is down 3% over the past week and trading lower so far this month.

October is usually a strong month for the original cryptocurrency, a pattern traders have long dubbed "Uptober." Data from Coinglass shows that bitcoin has finished eight of the last 10 Octobers in the green.

Last year was one of the exceptions. Bitcoin's price notched an all-time high of $126,080, but then began entering a bear market after October 10 — when the biggest crypto liquidation event in history battered the asset's price. Liquidations force the closure of leveraged positions when prices move against them, so mass closures can amplify selling pressure across the market.

Markets across the board were hit hard following tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. Crypto long positions were wiped out, with more than $19 billion in digital asset bets liquidated. Bitcoin then spent most of 2026 in a bear market.

The good news? The coin just had its best quarter in years, along with a good September — historically a rough month for the cryptocurrency. Analysts now say that while "Uptober" has gotten off to a bad start, signs of a bottom this month may already be in.

Writing for data firm CryptoQuant, Japanese asset management platform XWIN said the price could move up from here, stating in a note that early indications of a floor are appearing.

"Now, signs of a potential bottom are emerging," XWIN said. "On October 12, markets priced roughly an 18% chance of an October Fed hike, while Brent crude had eased from nearly $110 to around $103."

It added: "'Uptober' need not mean uninterrupted gains: a correction can build the foundation for the next advance."

High oil prices have — at least in the short term — hurt bitcoin's price, as investors then expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in order to control inflation. Rate expectations are a recurring macro swing factor for crypto: when investors anticipate higher rates, yield-bearing instruments tend to pull capital away from risk assets. Yet when the U.S. central bank raised rates last month, bitcoin's price was unfazed and rose following the news.

Other analysts have said the biggest cryptocurrency is out of its bear market after crossing its 365-day moving average — a signal that has marked the start of its bull markets in past cycles. For readers tracking those calls, the data points are already on the board: whether bitcoin holds its footing above that long-term average, and whether the Fed-hike odds and Brent prices cited in the CryptoQuant note continue to ease.

This article was written by Mathew Di Salvo and originally appeared on Bitcoin Magazine.