Bitcoin (BTC) declined 2.4% to $76,514 on Tuesday, November 3, while Americans cast early ballots in the midterm elections. The move came despite an overnight exchange between Washington and Tehran in which a US fighter jet destroyed an Iranian missile launcher on Qeshm Island — a development that left little visible mark on the chart. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), meanwhile, recorded a net loss of $398.6 million on Monday, their second consecutive day of outflows.

The strike barely moved the market. In the four hours after the news reached Asian trading desks, Bitcoin traded between $76,541 and $77,314, while Brent crude rose 0.5% to $105.25. The heavier selling had already taken place during US hours on Monday, when BlackRock's IBIT alone shed $405.3 million — its biggest daily outflow since the summer.

The vote is the bigger question. Prediction markets such as Polymarket, where traders wager real money on real-world outcomes, give Democrats about a 94% chance of taking the House of Representatives, an outcome that would push crypto bills that never passed the current Congress even further out of reach. History adds a seasonal wrinkle: Bitcoin has ended the fourth quarter lower in each of the last three midterm years.

Tomorrow could trigger the stock market's biggest rally

President Trump could become the 8th president in history to lose both the House and Senate to Democrats

What happened to the S&P after, on average:

• 1 month later: +2.1% (6 of 7 times positive)

• 3 months later:… pic.twitter.com/7j2I6GInhb

— Michael Burry Stock Tracker (@burrytracker) November 2, 2026

https://x.com/burrytracker/status/2117391305395568687?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Bitcoin now sits on support levels that have held since August, with trading volume subdued. The question hanging over the market is whether the midterm dip is a trap, or a pause ahead of the post-election rally that followed previous midterms.

What Happened With Iran — and Why Did Bitcoin Shrug It Off?

The exchange was small and, by design, stayed small. On Monday night, an Iranian surface-to-air missile downed a US drone east of the Strait of Hormuz, US officials told reporters. A US fighter jet then struck the missile launcher on Qeshm Island in what an official described as "self-defence." The United States has carried out a series of such strikes in recent weeks, The Wall Street Journal reported, deliberately kept quiet so as not to signal a return to the full campaign that began on February 28.

President Trump played down the episode. "I don't know if you even call it a war because we haven't been doing any fighting for months," he said. Asked whether he planned further strikes after the midterms, he answered: "no."

Markets took him at his word:

• Oil: Brent crude rose 0.5% to $105.25 in early Asian trade, a fraction of last week's swings.
• Bitcoin: the four-hour candle that opened at midnight UTC moved less than 1% and closed slightly higher.
• Volume: 3,145 BTC traded on Binance in that candle — a normal session, nothing like the 10,496 BTC that changed hands in the four hours after the $6.36 billion Binance hack.

War headlines have mattered to Bitcoin chiefly through oil. Brent above $100 keeps inflation elevated, and with PCE inflation running at 3.6%, CME futures now lean toward a Fed rate hike in December rather than a cut — the difference between tighter and easier money for risk assets. A strike that fails to move oil does not move that equation.

What Could the Midterms Mean for Bitcoin?

A Democratic House — every one of the chamber's 435 seats is up for election — is mostly priced in. Trump has already said that if the party wins the chamber, "I guess I'll become Mr Veto."

For crypto, that means gridlock. The industry has spent roughly $176 million on more than 100 races this cycle, but any new crypto law after January would need support from both parties, leaving the White House to rely on executive orders and regulators' guidance.

The calendar is the other concern. In each of the last three midterm years, Bitcoin ended the fourth quarter lower:

• 2014: -17.3%
• 2018: -43.5%
• 2022: -14.8%

This quarter, Bitcoin is down 6.4% so far, after its weakest October since 2014. There is a historical counterweight: all three of those earlier years were bear markets, and each also marked the turn — Bitcoin was trading higher 12 months after each of those three elections.

"Usually the Q4 dump of midterm years just provide opportunities to buy for those who sold long ago," analyst Benjamin Cowen said.

The result itself may matter less than its timing. Results land in the same week as Friday's jobs report, and a surprise Republican hold on the House is the one outcome markets have not priced.

Who Is Selling Bitcoin: ETFs or Traders?

The ETFs, mostly. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows for two straight sessions, according to Coinglass data:

• Friday, October 30: -$643.3 million, the largest single-day loss since June 25, led by IBIT (-$233.7 million) and Fidelity's FBTC (-$201.4 million).
• Monday, November 2: -$398.6 million, almost all of it from IBIT (-$405.3 million), with FBTC taking in $6.7 million and every other fund flat.

That amounts to $1.04 billion leaving the funds in two days. The funds started Friday with just over $1 billion in net inflows for 2026, meaning the year is now roughly flat, and total assets have slipped below $100 billion to about $98 billion. Because spot ETFs hold Bitcoin directly — shares are created and redeemed against the underlying coins — net outflows translate into the funds selling Bitcoin, the same pipeline that channelled the heavy buying that followed their January 2024 launch.

Spot traders are not adding to the selling — but they are not absorbing it either. Binance's BTCUSDT market averaged $1.16 billion a day in October, and only three days came near double that figure: October 2 and the two days of the Binance hack. Monday's slide came on $0.98 billion, below average, after a weekend of roughly $0.5 billion a day.

Weekly volume tells the same story: $8.1 billion last week, in line with the $7.3 billion to $9.4 billion range that has prevailed in most weeks since September, and well below the $12.2 billion recorded in the August breakout week. Low volume on a slide suggests sellers are not panicking, but it also means no one is stepping in to buy. Until ETF flows turn, the bid has to come from somewhere else.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: What Do the Weekly and 4-Hour Charts Say?

Both timeframes point to the same line: $76,300 to $76,500. Bitcoin trades at $76,514 on Binance, 39% below its record high of $126,080 set in October 2025.

The Weekly Chart: A Range Losing Its Top

Since the August breakout, Bitcoin has traded between $74,968 and $87,396. Inside that range, the trend has turned lower:

• Four consecutive lower weekly closes: from $86,530 to $83,773, $82,116, $80,154 and $78,354 last week.
• 50-week EMA: $78,497, lost in the hack week and not reclaimed.
• 20-week EMA: $76,840, just below where Bitcoin is trading this week.

A weekly close back above $78,497 would keep the range intact. A close below $74,968 would end it, and the next significant support on this chart is the summer base around $62,300, where Bitcoin spent most of June through mid-August.

The 4-Hour Chart: A Floor Under Lower Highs

The short-term picture is tighter. Bitcoin has bottomed at $76,326 to $76,389 twice — on October 30 and again on Tuesday — and every bounce has topped out at a lower level, from $81,971 before the hack to $78,878 on Monday.

• 4H 50 EMA: $78,673, just under Monday's high and capping each bounce.
• 4H 200 EMA: $80,643, with the 50 EMA below it since late October.
• Floor: $76,326, the October 30 low, retested on Tuesday at $76,389.

A flat floor beneath falling highs forms a descending triangle, a pattern that usually resolves downward. Its height — roughly $2,550 — points to a measured move near $73,800 if the floor gives way.

For Bitcoin, the war headlines are noise for now. The ETF outflows and the $76,326 floor are the signal, and a close below that level would turn the midterm dip into a breakdown.

This article originally appeared on 99Bitcoins.