Bitcoin price stalled after rising from below $65,000 in mid-August to above $82,000 within several weeks. BTC traded near $77,100 on Friday, below a concentrated set of technical and on-chain resistance levels identified by CryptoQuant.

The firm’s assessment describes the broader trend as constructive but says buyers must clear several barriers. The first is a close above the 365-day moving average at $81,700. That level rejected the advance in early September and carries historical significance in CryptoQuant’s framework. The firm treats a close above it as confirmation of a bull phase rather than a brief move through resistance.

Long-Term Holders Create a $77,100 to $80,200 Supply Zone

Long-term holders represent the nearest obstacle. CryptoQuant estimates that this group sold as many as 539,000 BTC during one 30-day period in 2026. The sales took place between $77,100 and $80,200, creating a zone where former holders could sell into rebounds. With Bitcoin trading near the lower end of that range, demand would need to absorb the available supply before higher resistance levels become relevant.

Read the full report — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 11, 2026

Read the full report

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 11, 2026

The supply zone lies below the 365-day moving average, making any move higher a sequence of hurdles rather than a single breakout. Bitcoin has already failed near that area once, after its move above $82,000 lost momentum. CryptoQuant also tracks the 200-day moving average near $70,000 and identifies it as the first technical support if selling pressure increases.

The $77,100 to $80,200 range represents more than a chart level. It contains coins released by investors who held them through earlier market phases. Repeated tests can reduce this supply if buyers absorb the coins offered for sale. Conversely, failed rebounds can give the same holders another opportunity to reduce their positions.

If Bitcoin clears the $81,700 average, buyers would still face two additional levels. The three-times Metcalfe valuation band is at $83,600. The band derives network-value estimates from active addresses, and CryptoQuant describes it as a valuation ceiling near the current range. The upper band of trader realized price, which tracks the cost basis of active traders, is at $88,700.

CryptoQuant says previous approaches to the trader band have coincided with increased selling pressure. As a result, a move above $81,700 alone would not resolve the broader question of whether Bitcoin has completed a breakout.

ETF Flows Add to the Market-Level Focus

ETF flows provide a separate near-term data point. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $13.29 million in net withdrawals on Friday, extending an outflow streak to four consecutive sessions. The funds lost $462.73 million over the week, while trading volume reached $2.60 billion. Their net assets closed at $97.58 billion.

Bitcoin remained near $77,000 during the withdrawal streak. The data do not prove that fund redemptions caused the price decline, but they show that recent institutional transactions did not provide consistent demand while the market tested overhead supply.

Ether ETFs recorded $216.41 million in inflows on Friday and completed a fourth consecutive week of net inflows. The difference between the Bitcoin and ether flows does not prove that money moved directly from Bitcoin products into ether products. It does, however, show that ETF demand was selective during the period, coinciding with the overhead supply and Bitcoin’s failed test of $81,700.

The 365-day moving average therefore remains a key reference point. A strong close above $81,700 would bring the $83,600 Metcalfe band into focus. A rejection would leave the $77,100 to $80,200 supply zone active and expose Bitcoin to the same concentration of sellers that limited its latest advance.

CryptoQuant identifies the 200-day moving average near $70,000 as the next visible support. A separate on-chain accumulation cluster sits between $62,000 and $65,000, where approximately 476,000 BTC accumulated this year. The $77,100 to $80,200 supply area, $81,700 moving average, and $83,600 Metcalfe band mark the levels Bitcoin must reclaim before the $88,700 trader band becomes relevant.