Bitcoin climbed back above $85,000, gaining about 2% over the past 24 hours, as U.S. PCE inflation data for August showed renewed cooling and expectations of a further interest rate hike faded. The move extended a 1.6% rise recorded in the preceding hours, according to CoinGecko data.

The advance comes alongside heavy accumulation by large holders and a strong recovery in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have swung from roughly $5 billion in cumulative outflows at the end of July to $1 billion in year-to-date net flows.

Whales Add 41,025 BTC as Holdings Hit Post-August Highs

Bitcoin has held firmly around the $85,000 level following the late-August and September rally, a stretch in which whale entities continued to accumulate aggressively.

According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC — a cohort the analytics platform classifies as whales and sharks — bought 41,025 BTC over the past 10 days. The purchases lifted their combined holdings to 13.64 million BTC, or 67.93% of the total supply, their highest level since the mid-August rally. Historically, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have tended to perform better during periods of accumulation.

By contrast, wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have remained largely unchanged, indicating that retail participation is flat for now. The divergence between accumulating whales and dormant small holders is one dynamic to watch.

PCE Cooling Eases October Rate-Hike Odds

The latest push higher came after U.S. PCE inflation for August showed signs of cooling. Headline PCE inflation eased to 3.4%, below market expectations of 3.7%, while core PCE inflation came in at 3.0%, lower than the 3.3% forecast. July's headline and core readings were both revised down by 30 basis points.

The PCE index — short for Personal Consumption Expenditures — is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, which is why its monthly readings feed directly into expectations for the Fed's rate path.

Following the data, expectations of an interest rate hike in October declined, and the development pushed Bitcoin and the broader crypto market higher over the following hours.

Options Positioning Eases as Analysts Point to October Catalysts

Crypto analyst CW said bearish positioning in the BTC options market has eased as the price rebounds. According to CW, call options currently hold an advantage through the end of the year, and the options market's influence is now nearly on par with that of the futures market.

Analysts at 10x Research said Bitcoin could see a strong upside move in October. The research firm said it entered August expecting the month to confirm that Bitcoin's bear-market low was in place, with its cycle indicator suggesting the market was coiled for a sharp move higher.

According to 10x Research, Bitcoin rallied after news broke on August 19 that U.S. federal debt had exceeded $40 trillion, reaching $80,000 within a week. The price then retreated to $76,000 amid concerns about a hawkish Federal Reserve. Within another week, however, Bitcoin climbed to $86,000 as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hinted at a more accommodative monetary policy going forward. The firm added that Bitcoin tends to move sharply when a catalyst emerges rather than advance gradually, noting that October has always been a month rich in catalysts.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Show Strong Recovery

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.4 billion in net inflows in the week ending September 25, marking their largest weekly intake since October 2025. The inflows lifted year-to-date net flows to $1 billion, reversing the $5 billion in cumulative outflows recorded at the end of July, according to The Kobeissi Letter.

The funds added another $66.2 million on September 29, extending their inflow streak to nine consecutive sessions. BlackRock's IBIT led with $51.1 million in inflows, followed by ARK 21Shares' ARKB with $33.2 million, while Bitwise's BITB recorded $18.1 million in outflows. ETF flows are widely tracked as a barometer of institutional demand, and whether the nine-session streak extends is one flow-related signal to watch as the market enters October.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Macroeconomic expectations, derivatives positioning and Bitcoin prices can change rapidly.

Source: The Market Periodical