Bitcoin traded near $84,500 on Wednesday, up 2.5% over 24 hours, as the crypto market bounced back from a mid-October slide that had pushed the asset below $80,000. The total crypto market capitalization—the combined value of every coin—rose 2.2% to $2.9 trillion, giving traders room to breathe after a turbulent start to a month that has historically delivered some of Bitcoin's strongest gains—the stretch crypto traders have long nicknamed 'Uptober.'

Altcoins followed suit. Ethereum climbed 2.5% to $2,504, Solana gained 2.2% to $108.18, and BNB rose 2% to $749. XRP led the large-capitalization tokens with a 4.1% advance to $1.37, while Zcash jumped 11.2% to $1,332 and has now added 15.3% over the past seven days.

Market sentiment is steadying, though cautiously. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index—a 0-to-100 gauge where 0 represents extreme fear and 100 represents extreme greed—reads 55, a neutral reading that sits 3 points ahead of yesterday's level. In other words, traders appear to have stopped panicking, but they are not yet chasing prices.

Macro Pressures Eased Slightly on Wednesday

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has swung between $97 and $112 a barrel this month and traded near $108 on Wednesday, when both oil and the 10-year Treasury yield, at 5.09%, eased slightly. The war with Iran continues to keep supply fears alive, and Washington rejected an Iranian plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in late September—the chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil.

Oil matters to crypto because it feeds inflation. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% in September from a year earlier, above the 3.6% economists expected and up from 3.4% in August. Higher inflation pushes up Treasury yields—the annual return investors demand for lending to the U.S. government—and government bonds paying more than 5% with almost no default risk pull money away from stocks and crypto. Higher rates also make the borrowing behind leveraged trades costlier.

The Federal Reserve's benchmark rate sits at 3.75% to 4% after a September hike. CME FedWatch gives roughly an eight-in-ten chance of a hold at the Oct. 28 meeting, and markets firmly expect a hike on Dec. 9. Those two meetings are the next scheduled moments when that rates backdrop could change—the fixed macro dates to watch as Bitcoin presses the upper end of its range.

Bitcoin Price: Going Up, but Weak

On the daily chart, Bitcoin opened Wednesday at $82,928.80 and has reached $84,726.28, up 1.94% for the candle, after bouncing about 6% from this month's low near $79,711. The current price is pressing upward, attempting to approach the natural resistance at $87,422.70.

Bitcoin's latest rally ran from $62,763 to a September high of $87,422.70, a trend that marked out strong support at $81,603. Bitcoin lost that level during the October dip but has now reclaimed it, with movement still on the upper side of its bounce.

The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA)—an average of recent closing prices that gives more weight to the most recent days—sits near $80,782, above the 200-day moving average at about $76,084. A 50-day average above the 200-day is the standard sign of an uptrend, and Bitcoin trades 4.6% above the shorter average.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which scores recent buying against selling on a 0-to-100 scale, reads 58.5. Readings above 50 mean buyers hold the edge, while 70 marks overbought territory—momentum is not yet stretched, but it is moving toward a bullish mood.

The bullish scenario requires a daily close above $84,726, Wednesday's high, ideally with the Average Directional Index (ADX)—an indicator of a trend's strength over time—climbing back above 25 to confirm a trend. That would open a natural target at around $86,090, followed by the September high at $87,422.70.

Traders on Myriad, a prediction market—where traders take positions on outcomes and the implied odds move as money flows in—built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, put the odds of Bitcoin touching $87,500 in October at 31%, down from 45% on Oct. 12. A $90,000 touch is priced at 18%.

A stall below $84,726 would keep Bitcoin inside the roughly $79,700-to-$87,400 range that has held since late September, a scenario consistent with an ADX under 20.

The bearish case starts with a daily close below $81,603. That would expose the 50-day EMA at $80,782, then the October low near $79,711, and finally the 200-day EMA at $76,084.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

Source: Decrypt