Bitcoin fell below $77,000 on September 11 and touched a daily low of $76,600, placing the closely watched $76,000 support level in focus. The move came as Brent crude pushed above $110 a barrel and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.93%, a combination that is now driving today's Bitcoin price prediction.

Oil above $100 has sharpened inflation concerns across markets. Yet the immediate transmission channel described by the available market evidence runs through the bond market. Higher Treasury yields affect borrowing costs and financial conditions, while the macro energy shock has added pressure to Bitcoin as traders reassess inflation and monetary-policy risks. The result has been a cross-asset risk-off backdrop in which crypto, equities, and credit are repricing together.

BREAKING: Brent crude SMASHES through $111 for first time since May. Brent has surged nearly +83% since the start of the year, jumping from $60.70 on January 1 to $111 today. A $50/bbl increase in just over eight months. The surge comes as Yemen's Houthis reportedly hit Saudi… pic.twitter.com/SrsrxrL5ap

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau), September 11, 2026 — X post

The central tension is that oil supplies the inflation shock, while yields provide a direct measure of how that shock is being absorbed across financial markets. With inflation data lagging the latest rise in energy prices, market participants are making forward-looking valuations before official data can fully reflect the move in crude. Until official releases catch up, Treasury yields remain the most immediate gauge of how the oil shock is filtering into broader financial conditions.

What Happened Yesterday

On September 10, higher oil prices and Treasury-market volatility coincided with a broad deterioration in market sentiment. Brent crude moved past $100 and then above $105, extending gains of more than 30% since early August. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by more than 4% and returned above $100 a barrel for the first time since May. The session underscored how quickly the energy-market shock was being transmitted into risk assets.

The primary evidence attributes the Brent move to concerns about supply disruptions caused by intensified attacks on Middle Eastern shipping routes. As oil prices rose, Bitcoin fell below the $77,000 defense line and reached its daily low of $76,676.07, dragging its near-term price outlook lower. Nasdaq 100 futures also fell 0.7%, indicating that the pressure extended beyond crypto markets.

The bond market was similarly volatile. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.93%, and the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.35%, a 19-year high. The two-year Treasury yield rose to approximately 4.50%, a move that reflected a repricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path. Markets priced a 76% probability of a Fed rate hike the following week, following an accelerated rise in the Producer Price Index alongside the crude-oil rally.

A key complication is the lag in inflation data. Most of the August inflation data was collected before crude prices rose further. That means current readings may not fully capture the energy-price pressure that market participants are already attempting to value. In this setting, the market is reacting not only to published data but also to the possibility that later data will show more of the oil shock. That gap between published data and market pricing has become a defining feature of the current move.

Why Yields Matter for Bitcoin

Treasury yields matter because Treasuries are a benchmark risk-free asset for global finance. Reuters explains that they anchor the pricing of mortgages, corporate bonds, emerging-market debt, private credit, and stock valuations. When yields rise, borrowing costs can rise, and financial conditions can tighten across markets. Because Treasuries serve as the reference point for global finance, shifts in their yields ripple through nearly every asset class.

The 10-year Treasury yield is also an important guide for mortgage rates, while companies generally borrow at a Treasury yield plus a credit spread. A sustained rise in U.S. yields can draw capital toward dollar assets and tighten financial conditions abroad.

You can't make this up. The US Treasury just announced it is tripling long-term buybacks to $6 billion and yields STILL rallied on the news. That means the US Treasury went from doubling, to "at least doubling," to tripling long-term bond buybacks and yields are still rising.… pic.twitter.com/WWWtwBpzVw

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), September 9, 2026 — X post

Those mechanics help explain why a Treasury-market repricing can spread beyond government debt and into equities, credit, and crypto assets.

For Bitcoin, the available evidence identifies a macro spillover rather than an isolated crypto-market event. Woofun AI said severe volatility in the macro energy market was transmitting inflation expectations to the crypto sector and placing downward pressure on Bitcoin as it tested the $76,000 level. It characterized the cross-asset move as an urgent repricing of potential stagflation risks.

The two-year Treasury yield, at approximately 4.50%, stood nearly a percentage point above the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's current 3.50% to 3.75% target range. This move reflected traders' expectations of further monetary tightening. At the longer end, the approach of the 10-year yield toward 5% has heightened attention on whether the bond market will demand still higher compensation to hold government debt.

Taken together, the session's evidence points to a market still digesting an energy-price shock whose full effect on inflation has yet to appear in official data, with the $76,000 level remaining the reference point for Bitcoin's near-term outlook. Subsequent inflation releases, Treasury yields, crude prices, and Bitcoin's ability to hold that level are the main reference points for assessing how the repricing develops.

Source: 99Bitcoins