Bitcoin is trading at $64,938, up 1.06% (+$683) on the session, yet remains pinned below both its short-term and long-term moving averages—a technical formation that keeps the medium-term outlook tilted to the downside.

The macro picture, however, shifted in a direction that could eventually favor risk assets. The U.S. labor market contracted sharply in July, giving the Federal Reserve less reason to tighten further and prompting markets to dial back the odds of a September rate hike.

Labor Market Posts First Net Loss Since Pandemic Recovery

U.S. employers shed 23,000 jobs in July, marking the first net payroll decline since the pandemic-era recovery and falling far short of the 95,000 gain economists had anticipated. The headline unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, but only because a growing number of workers exited the labor force entirely. Prior months were also revised lower: June's initially reported gain of 57,000 was cut to 20,000, and May's figure was nearly halved. The scale of the downward revisions adds to a body of labor-market data that Fed officials have publicly cited as a factor in their policy deliberations.

Markets interpreted the data as cover for the Fed to hold rates steady. Treasury yields fell, the U.S. dollar dropped 0.5%, and CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike sliding to 40% from 55% a day earlier.

A more dovish Fed trajectory is typically a tailwind for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, which have become increasingly sensitive to rate expectations as institutional participation in digital assets has deepened. Bitcoin's chart, however, tells a different story.

Bitcoin Price: What the Technicals Show

Bitcoin's trajectory has been one of persistent decline. BTC peaked near $80,000 in mid-May before sliding to a July low around $58,000 in a clean downtrend through the spring. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) now sits below the 200-day EMA—a formation known as a death cross—signaling that the medium-term trend still points downward. While death crosses are among the most widely tracked technical signals, they are inherently lagging, forming only after a sustained decline has already occurred; in previous Bitcoin cycles, they have sometimes coincided with local turning points rather than confirming further downside. Since the July low, the descent has flattened into a sideways consolidation, but price has not reclaimed either moving average.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 54.6 on a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is considered overbought; below 30, oversold. At 54.6, momentum is neutral, offering neither fuel for a breakout nor signs of a washout.

Bull case: A daily close back above the 50-day EMA and the $66,000 whole-number resistance could open a path toward the 200-day EMA ($64,000) and the cloud top near $72,000. Fundamentally, a softer Fed and a weaker dollar provide a catalyst. The case is thin, however—Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the 50-day line throughout the entire consolidation.

Bear case: A break below $60,000—the cloud floor and a psychological magnet—would confirm that sellers still control the structure and point back toward the July low of $58,000. A daily close under that level would reopen the spring downtrend.

Prediction Market Sentiment

On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, the outlook for Bitcoin remains bearish. Traders are currently pricing in nearly 65% odds that Bitcoin falls to $55K before mounting any recovery toward $84K—odds that have barely moved over the past week even as the macro backdrop shifted in a more supportive direction.

For now, $65K serves as the key dividing line. Above the 50-day EMA, the July chop resembles base-building; below $60K, it looks like a bear flag. The jobs report handed Bitcoin the macro rationale to rally, but the death cross suggests the trend has not yet reversed.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.