Bitcoin traded near $80,500 for much of Tuesday, holding above the $80,000 level that has become the market's line in the sand. Prices ranged between roughly $79,400 and $80,800 over the day, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data, and the asset was up about 0.3% over the prior 24 hours by mid-afternoon Eastern time.

The steadiness follows a rough stretch. Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Monday as investors cut risk exposure, weighed down by concerns about AI-sector valuations and higher oil prices. Spot Bitcoin ETFs — funds that hold bitcoin directly — have also been shedding money. Still, the selling has not turned into panic, with the price mostly staying in a band between about $79,000 and $81,000 this week.

The longer view is harder on anyone who bought near the top. Bitcoin's all-time high sits near $126,000, set in October 2025, and the price is roughly 30% below where it was a year ago.

Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve, whose policy meeting runs October 27 and 28, with the decision due Wednesday. The central bank has held its target range at 3.75% to 4% after raising rates in September, and officials have signaled that another increase may be needed by year-end.

Market odds leaned toward a hold the last time they were clearly reported in early October, but those numbers are stale and have likely moved. Traders will watch Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference for hints about a December hike.

Bitcoin's Logic Amid the Midterms

The logic for Bitcoin is straightforward. Higher rates drain liquidity from speculative assets, so a hawkish surprise would likely push the price back toward $80,000 or below. A hold, or a softer tone, could give buyers room to push toward the $88,000 range seen earlier this fall.

The November 3 midterm elections add another layer. Prediction markets, platforms where traders take positions on real-world outcomes, have favored Democrats winning both chambers of Congress, according to one Polymarket reading cited in recent coverage. Those markets gave Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House and 62% of winning the Senate — a scenario TD Cowen analysts called the most negative for bitcoin, warning that the results could stall the CLARITY Act, the crypto market structure bill now pending in Congress, for two years.

A split Congress, with Republicans holding the Senate, was seen as a better outcome, while a Republican sweep was viewed as the best path for crypto. Historically, bitcoin and other risk assets have tended to rally in the 12 months after past midterm cycles.

For crypto, the most immediate policy question is the pending market structure bill, and lawmakers' votes on it could shape how the industry approaches the races. The bill had stalled after a failed Senate cloture vote in September (the Senate procedure to end debate and move to a final vote), with ethics provisions and stablecoin yield still dividing lawmakers.

At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is roughly $80,600.

This article is based on a post first published on Bitcoin Magazine, written by Micah Zimmerman.