Bitcoin traded near $80,400 on Monday after briefly falling to about $79,300 during the Asian morning, as markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision scheduled for Wednesday.

The cryptocurrency was little changed from midnight UTC after recovering from the intraday decline. Ether fell 0.2%, while the DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index to record a gain. Bitcoin had dropped about $2,000 over the weekend as technology stocks declined. Investing.com reported that Bitcoin was down 0.3% at $80,077.7 at 17:34 ET.

Market caution had already increased over the weekend after Arthur Hayes said his Maelstrom fund had sold its entire directional book, including 6,400 ether. Hayes cited macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

Oil and central-bank decisions

Oil prices eased from six-month highs following reports of additional talks between Middle Eastern powers and Iran. U.S. crude fell about 2% to near $101 a barrel, while Brent crude declined to around $110.

Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran on Sunday. President Donald Trump said there would be no strike that day, although he kept the option open. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.3% after U.S. stocks sold off on Friday.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September and will decide on policy again Wednesday. CME’s FedWatch tool showed a 90% probability of no rate change and an approximately 80% probability of another rate increase in December.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are also scheduled to meet this week. All three central banks are expected to leave rates unchanged while maintaining a hawkish tone because of persistent inflation and energy-related risks.

Jesse Marre, a senior portfolio manager at Hilbert Group, pointed to tight liquidity. He said the firm’s global liquidity index stood at 3.06 and that liquidity velocity had turned negative, corresponding with Bitcoin’s five consecutive daily declines last week. Liquidity conditions of the kind Marre describes are closely tied to central-bank policy, which is why this week’s trio of meetings carries weight for crypto as well as traditional markets.

Marre identified $75,500 as the key level to monitor and said a break below it would invalidate the base formed since the summer lows. Bitcoin remains near the lower end of an $80,000-to-$87,000 range established over the past month, with few positive catalysts emerging for crypto buyers.

Wallet counts and ETF flows

Santiment highlighted a decline in’s non-empty wallet count. The analytics firm said Bitcoin had lost roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, reducing the total to about 59.95 million. Wallet counts are among the on-chain measures analysts use to gauge holder participation in the market.

🚨 Bitcoin’s Falling Wallet Count May Signal A Bottom 😤 Bitcoin has lost roughly 30K non-empty wallets since October 16th, bringing the total back down near 59.95M. This may sound alarming, but it doesn’t necessarily signal declining utility. After weeks of stagnant $BTC price… https://x.com/SantimentData/status/2114748178591326468?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw — Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) October 26, 2026

Santiment said smaller holders appeared to be losing patience after weeks of flat price action. The firm said retail exits had historically been more constructive for price than a rush of new buyers.

The analytics firm described $80,000 as the immediate battleground. It said holding that level and reclaiming approximately $82,500 would strengthen the bottom signal, while a sustained move below $79,000 would delay it.

ETF flows have also remained a focus. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $138 million in outflows on Friday, bringing their two-day outflow total to $772 million, according to Farside Investors. Flows through the spot funds are widely watched as a barometer of institutional participation in bitcoin.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs then recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26, according to SoSoValue data cited by Wu Blockchain. All of the inflows came through BlackRock’s IBIT, increasing its cumulative net inflows to $66.24 billion. Spot Ether ETFs recorded $88.6 million in outflows that day.

Bitcoin ETFs Draw $110 Million as Ether Funds Shed $88.6 Million According to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26, entirely driven by BlackRock's IBIT, bringing its cumulative net inflows to $66.24 billion. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw… https://x.com/WuBlockchain/status/2114943891615232371?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 27, 2026

With the Fed statement due Wednesday and the ECB and Bank of Japan meeting this week, Marre’s $75,500 level and Santiment’s $80,000 battleground stand as the reference points traders will be watching through the rest of the week.

Source: https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-btc-price-can-80000-hold-before-wednesdays-fed-decision/