Two of Bitcoin's best-known corporate buyers added to their holdings this week, and the price barely responded. Strategy said on Monday that it bought 1,037 BTC last week. Hours later, Trump Media reported that it added a net 1,510 BTC, worth about $113 million, in the third quarter.

Bitcoin traded at $74,277 on Tuesday, down 0.8% in 24 hours and 3.5% over the week, below where it stood when either announcement was published.

The market's attention is on a bigger event. The U.S. October consumer price index (CPI), the main inflation report, is due at 8:30 a.m. in New York, or 13:30 UTC. Earlier on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said a hot reading could justify a half-point rate hike in December.

Positioning ahead of the release is also drawing attention. As Crypto Rover posted on X:

A MASSIVE WHALE IS SHORTING BITCOIN RIGHT BEFORE THE U.S. CPI REPORT. The trader has opened a $95 MILLION BTC short at $75,302, using 13x leverage. Does this whale know something the market doesn't? pic.twitter.com/J9J25JCk0A

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 10, 2026

The data underline how quiet trading has been: Bitcoin's range over the past 48 hours is 3.6%, tighter than before 18 of the last 24 CPI reports. The question is whether the market is simply waiting for the inflation print before its next move.

Bitcoin Has Gone Quiet, but Quiet Has Not Meant a Breakout

The waiting shows in the price. Over the past 48 hours, Bitcoin has traded between $73,510 and $76,200, a gap of 3.6%.

A comparison with the same 48-hour window before each of the last 24 CPI releases, from October 2024 to October 2026, using hourly prices from Binance, shows the usual range was 4.8%. Only 6 of those 24 reports came after a quieter stretch than this one.

A quiet build-up has not historically produced a large move. After those six quiet stretches, Bitcoin's range over the next 24 hours was wider than usual only once, in January 2026. The other five days stayed calmer than a typical CPI day, with the price rising three times and falling three times.

The market, in other words, does appear to be waiting. History offers no indication of which way Bitcoin goes next, or that the move will be large.

Strategy and Trump Media Bought, and the Price Fell Anyway

The buying is real. It has not been large enough to turn the price.

Strategy, the largest company holding Bitcoin, now owns 850,364 BTC according to its own tracker, roughly 4% of all the Bitcoin that will ever exist. Last week's purchase of 1,037 BTC was worth about $77 million at Tuesday's price. Bitcoin traded between $73,772 and $75,568 on Monday, the day of the announcement, and now sits near the bottom of that range.

Trump Media, the company behind Truth Social, reported holding 15,649 BTC at the end of September in its third-quarter results, released Monday. President Donald Trump is the company's largest shareholder, but the purchase was made by the company, not by Trump personally.

Chief Financial Officer Phillip Juhan said on the earnings call that gross buying totaled 4,359 BTC in the quarter, comments first reported by crypto.news. The company funded part of the buying by selling shares of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF.

The net change was 1,510 BTC more than at the end of June, after other moves in the portfolio. The holdings are now worth about $1.16 billion at $74,277, down from about $1.31 billion on September 30.

The results landed on Monday evening, a day after Bitcoin hit its low. BTC was near $75,000 at the time and has drifted lower since.

Waller Raised the Stakes Hours Before the Release

The Federal Reserve is the reason CPI matters so much this month. The central bank is debating whether to raise interest rates again. Higher rates make cash and bonds pay more, which tends to pull money away from assets like Bitcoin.

Waller spoke in London on Tuesday morning. In his speech, he said he leans toward a 0.25 percentage point hike at the Fed's December meeting even if inflation improves in October.

He went further on a hot report. If core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, rises about 0.3% again, he said a 0.5 point hike "should be considered." Economists expect core prices to have risen about 0.2% in October.

That gives the report two clear outcomes for Bitcoin. A reading near 0.2% keeps the December hike small. A reading of 0.3% or more puts a larger hike on the table.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Hold $73,510 Through CPI?

Bitcoin trades at $74,277 on Binance, 1% above Sunday's low of $73,510.

On the four-hour chart, where each candle covers four hours, Bitcoin sits below both of its exponential moving averages (EMAs), averages that give recent prices more weight. The 50-period EMA stands at $76,355 and the 200-period EMA at $79,134.

Resistance: $76,200, Sunday's high and the top of the 48-hour range; then $76,355, the 50-period EMA; above that, $79,134, the 200-period EMA.

Support: $73,510, Sunday's low; then $73,027, the August 21 low; below that, $68,902, the August 20 low.

The buyers have not moved the price, and CPI decides the next step. A close outside the $73,510 to $76,200 range after the release is the signal to watch.