Bitcoin (BTC) remained below $82,000 around Thursday's Wall Street open as renewed Iran war headlines returned to pressure risk assets.

Key points:

• Bitcoin held on to 3% daily losses on Thursday as United States stocks declined amid geopolitical tensions.
• US President Donald Trump reiterated the possibility of new military action against Iran, adding that no negotiations were underway.
• BTC price analysis flagged $84,400 as a short-term ceiling ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Oct. 28.

Stocks fall as Trump says US "not negotiating" with Iran

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $81,256 on Bitstamp, down 2.9% on the day.

Mixed reactions to Tesla's earnings and capital expenditures combined with a risk-off mentality stoked by fresh comments from Trump, who said the United States was "not negotiating" with the Iranian side.

"We are going to have something one way or the other that will happen fairly soon. Most people seem to think it's after the election and we'll see what happens," he told reporters, referring to the US midterm elections on Nov. 3.

US stocks fell at the open, with the S&P 500 Index down 1.3% at the time of writing, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index traded 2.3% lower.

Related: Bitcoin 'top buyers' halt BTC price upside with $87.7K now key: Glassnode

"Tech stocks came under pressure amid renewed AI valuation fears. The rebound in energy prices contributed to the risk-off tone," Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets told Bloomberg.

He added: "Treasuries have emerged as a primary beneficiary as global risk sentiment has come under pressure."

As bond returns improved, the US 10-year bond yield approached 5% on the day, slipping to its lowest level since Sept. 23.

Bitcoin expected in narrow range until Fed meeting

After reaching nearly $85,000 the day prior, BTC price action continued to circle the cost basis of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at around $81,500. That cost-basis level marks the average price at which spot ETF investors hold their positions, meaning spot trading near it leaves those buyers close to break-even.

Analysts at Bitfinex Alpha, the research arm of crypto exchange Bitfinex, said on Wednesday that they expect BTC/USD to trade within a narrow range between $81,300 and $84,400 until the Federal Reserve's next rate-setting meeting on Oct. 28.

"Sustained ETF demand with stable leverage metrics would support a breakout above $84,400, while macro headinds combined with a close below $81,300 would increase the risk of a move towards the 15 October low at $79,821," the analysts wrote in the latest edition of Bitfinex Alpha.

The next dates to watch arrive in quick succession: the Fed's rate-setting meeting on Oct. 28, followed by the US midterm elections on Nov. 3 — the vote Trump referenced when discussing the timing of potential action.

On longer time frames, traders discounted the odds of a major price recovery by mid-January 2027, with Kalshi traders trimming the chances of BTC/USD hitting new all-time highs to just 3%. Kalshi is a prediction market platform where traders buy and sell contracts tied to real-world outcomes, including cryptocurrency price milestones.

Opinion: The UK needs a workable route to regulated DeFi access

This article is based on reporting originally published by Cointelegraph.