Bitcoin traded near $86,000 on Monday after recording its best weekly close in eight months, but it struggled to move higher after the US trading session opened. The cryptocurrency had been rejected near its weekly close of $86,570 as US Treasury yields rose.

The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.67%, just two basis points below the previous week’s 24-year high. The 10-year yield returned to 5.31%. Yields at these levels matter for Bitcoin because long-term government bonds set the return available on lower-risk assets, the benchmark against which investments that generate no cash flow are typically measured.

Trading firm QCP Capital said bond markets had not stabilized despite a weaker US jobs report. The firm cited elevated oil prices and high long-term yields as factors that have made it difficult for risk assets to move higher.

US stocks opened higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 0.7%. Traders were positioning for the Federal Reserve to pause rate hikes at its Oct. 28 meeting.

Deutsche Bank analysts said the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting minutes, scheduled for release Wednesday, would carry more significance than usual because of the bond-market sell-off. The minutes could provide insight into how Fed officials view the current tightening cycle. Alongside the Oct. 28 meeting, the release gives traders two near-term macro checkpoints for gauging the path of monetary policy.

Analyst identifies $87,400 level

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, said Bitcoin could reach between $90,000 and $93,000 if Treasury yields ease and inflation data continues to point to a weaker labor market. However, she said neither lower interest-rate expectations nor inflows into exchange-traded funds would be sufficient on their own to confirm a breakout.

Zhang identified $87,400 as the level Bitcoin buyers would need to reclaim on a daily or weekly closing basis to confirm stronger upward momentum. If the price declines, she named $84,000 and $82,000 as the nearest support levels.

Michaël van de Poppe, who is known on X as @CryptoMichNL, compared the current market structure with the previous cycle. He said Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before entering a consolidation period and that 2027 could bring new all-time highs. Van de Poppe posted the following on X on Oct. 5, 2026: https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2107033062056022080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

It's very comparable by what we've seen in the previous cycle for #Bitcoin . Breakout upwards, after a massive bullish divergence has been created. What's next? I think that we'll touch $100,000 in the coming period and that would be the psychological resistance that we're… pic.twitter.com/yC9jLryaTS — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 5, 2026

Market-based expectations for an October rate hike fell to approximately 23%, down from 64% a week earlier. Zhang attributed the change to September payroll growth of 29,000, significantly below economists’ estimate of 90,000. The repricing underscores how closely Bitcoin traders track labor data, which Zhang linked to shifts in Fed expectations and in Treasury yields.

August payroll growth was also revised lower, to 133,000 from the initial estimate of 162,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% over the same period.

Bitcoin ETF inflows continue

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $2.65 billion in inflows during September and about $134 million during the first two sessions of October, according to Zhang. She described the inflows as supportive but said they had not been enough to push Bitcoin through the resistance near its recent trading range. ETF flows are widely tracked as a gauge of institutional demand for Bitcoinn
Coin Bureau also reported on X that Bitcoin long-term holders remained in profit throughout the entire cycle, citing Glassnode data. The account said this had not occurred in any bear market since at least 2015 and added that the long-term-holder profit ratio was rising again. Coin Bureau’s Oct. 5, 2026, post is available at https://x.com/coinbureau/status/2106976877781082171?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

You can't make this up. Bitcoin has done something it hasn't done in any bear market since at least 2015. Long-term holders stayed in PROFIT through the entire cycle, per Glassnode. In every previous bear market since 2015, the average long-term holder ended up underwater at… pic.twitter.com/yhskbXoNDb — Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) October 5, 2026

Glassnode’s Weekly Market Pulse reported that buyer dominance had declined compared with mid-September, when BTC/USD first returned to $87,000 in eight months. The report characterized the change as a “moderation in aggressive upward momentum” rather than a reversal of the trend.

Zhang said stronger-than-expected inflation data, renewed oil-related price pressure, or hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve could cause expectations for an October rate hike to recover. She said any of those developments could push Bitcoin back toward $84,000.

The Federal Reserve raised its target interest-rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep. 16, with all 12 voting members supporting the decision. In its September projections, the Fed placed the median year-end interest rate at 4.1%, compared with 3.8% in June.

Source: https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-btc-price-analyst-says-100000-could-be-next-stop/