On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin price has undergone a sharp deleveraging phase since 2023. BTC faces resistance around $79K–$83K, and a daily close above this range could lead to a major breakout. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $987 million in net inflows last week.

After rallying to $80,000, Bitcoin's (BTC) price movement has remained relatively limited. At the same time, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued for three consecutive weeks. Analysts are divided on whether BTC is in the final phase of bottoming out or whether further downside remains.

Bitcoin Price Sees 2022-Like Structure for Strong Breakout

Popular analyst Crypto Patel reported that Bitcoin's price is showing a market structure similar to the setup seen during the 2022 bottom. Following that pattern, BTC reclaimed the previous cycle high before making a larger move. He noted that a similar structure is emerging again, and suggested the current consolidation could precede a major breakout if history repeats.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin has recently experienced its sharpest deleveraging phase since 2023. During this phase, Binance's open interest briefly dropped below its 180-day average. In derivatives markets, open interest — the total value of outstanding futures contracts — is a closely watched gauge of leverage; sharp drops in open interest typically signal forced liquidations and a flushing out of over-leveraged positions, which historically has often coincided with market bottoms as selling pressure exhausts.

Binance's current open interest stands at approximately $9.6 billion, above the $8.3 billion 180-day average, and accounts for around 37% of Bitcoin's total open interest. The current cycle has also recorded one of the largest liquidation events in Bitcoin's history. Darkfost said traders appear to have returned and are supporting BTC's rebound.

Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch Ahead

Crypto Patel said Bitcoin's higher-timeframe structure remains bearish from the $126K all-time high, with lower highs and lower lows still intact. However, the recovery from around $57.8K has created a potential Change of Character (CHoCH) — a technical pattern in which price breaks a prior sequence of lower highs, often read by traders as an early signal of a trend shift.

BTC is now approaching the $79K–$83K bearish order block, which Crypto Patel identified as the key area where sellers could defend. Order blocks are price zones where large sell orders previously accumulated, and they frequently act as resistance when price returns to them.

A daily close above $83K, followed by a successful retest, could open the way toward $89K–$91K and then $97K–$100K. Conversely, a rejection from $83K would keep the bearish structure intact, with $65K–$50K becoming relevant. According to Patel, $83K remains the key level that could determine Bitcoin's next price move.

Another analyst, Doctor Profit, stated that the $82,500 breakout for Bitcoin's price remains in focus. A break above this could open the way toward the next target of $88,000.

The $78,500 level remains crucial this week as Bitcoin looks to establish it as support after breaking through resistance. If the market faces another rejection, $71,000 is viewed as the strongest downside support.

Doctor Profit cited Bitcoin's previous breaks above $65,400, $69,000, and $71,500 as signs of continued strength. For now, the key levels are $82,500 on the upside and $78,500 on the downside, with $88,000 the next major target if the breakout occurs.

Institutional Demand for Bitcoin Remains Intact

Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have remained strong over the past three weeks. During the week from August 31 to September 4, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $987 million in net inflows, according to data from SoSoValue. Sustained ETF inflows matter because they represent direct bitcoin purchases backed by institutional and retail allocation through regulated wrappers, providing a consistent source of demand distinct from leveraged futures positioning.

Over the past 15 trading sessions, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $3.72 billion in net inflows. Over the same period, total trading volume has reached $55.66 billion, underscoring institutional demand for BTC.