Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed the S&P 500 in half of US trading sessions over onchain analytics platform Glassnode's latest measurement period, ending a prolonged stretch in which the cryptocurrency lost more sessions against the benchmark equity index than it won.

According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin delivered stronger returns than the S&P 500 in 50% of Wall Street trading sessions across a rolling 90-session window. The reading, which covers the 90 sessions through Wednesday, marks an improvement after an extended period of relative weakness versus equities. The win rate refers to the share of sessions in which Bitcoin posted higher returns than the index. Session-level comparisons of this kind offer a read on how Bitcoin is performing against traditional markets rather than in isolation.

"The win rate has not been above 50% since March 2025; for most of the past year, Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won," Glassnode wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain.

"A return to an even split ends a long stretch of underperformance. Should the win rate climb above 50% and hold there, it would show Bitcoin regaining strength against equities."

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 per-session returns. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode added that Bitcoin's average per-session gains over the same window were also "slightly higher" than those of the S&P 500.

Historical data points to stock gains after Democratic midterm sweeps

Democrats' wins in the US midterm elections have also drawn attention to historical patterns of equity market strength following similar outcomes. Data from crypto asset manager Capriole Investments shows that Democratic sweeps of Congress under Republican presidents have historically been followed by strong S&P 500 returns.

Of the 26 US midterm elections held since 1922, excluding the 2026 vote, Democrats won both the House and Senate under a Republican president on seven occasions. In those instances, the S&P 500 gained an average of 10.7% over the three months that followed. Average gains reached 17.5% after six months and 15.5% after a full year. As historical averages drawn from seven election instances, the figures describe past outcomes rather than a forecast for current conditions.

"There is simply no better election result for markets than we just had," Capriole founder Charles Edwards said of the data in a post on X.

S&P 500 performance based on midterm election outcome. Source: Charles Edwards on X.com

As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin hit $80.5K as US stocks rallied on the midterm election results.

Bitcoin's correlation with equities turns positive

Separately, data from TradingView places Bitcoin's rolling 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.63. The measure has become markedly positive since August, when both crypto and stocks gained as the US Treasury expanded its debt buybacks. Correlation readings approaching 1 indicate that two assets are moving increasingly in tandem, while readings near zero would point to little relationship between daily moves and negative values would indicate the assets moving in opposite directions. Because the figure is calculated over a rolling window, it updates as new trading sessions are added.

BTC/USD one-day chart with S&P 500 correlation data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Source: Cointelegraph