On-Chain Data Suggests Bitcoin Has Yet to Confirm a Bull Market Reversal

Bitcoin [$BTC] posted modest losses over recent trading sessions. The asset's spot ETF inflow streak — the longest in nine months — was broken on Thursday, July 23, by a $225.1 million outflow. Spot ETF flows are closely watched because they offer a transparent gauge of institutional demand, but a single day of outflows does not by itself confirm a trend change.

Bitcoin continued to trade within a long-term bearish price trend. Bulls' inability to break above the $67k local supply zone returned market control to the bears.

MVRV Ratio Has Not Signaled a Bear Market Bottom

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, when above 1, indicates that the aggregate holder remains in profit. Historically, bear market depths have only been reached when the MVRV falls below 1.

Crypto analyst Rei Researcher noted that this threshold has not been reached in the current cycle. The market was neither in bullish overheated territory nor at a confirmed bear market bottom.

On-chain data indicated that cyclical capitulation may not have concluded. The recent price bounce may have provided some long-term holders an opportunity to reduce exposure ahead of potential further weakness. Because MVRV compares current market capitalization with the realized value of coins based on their last on-chain movement, it is often used as a cycle-positioning tool rather than a short-term timing signal.

Supply in Profit and LTH SOPR Metrics Remain Below Historical Thresholds

Analyst The Chess Onchain observed that the Bitcoin supply in profit currently stood at 57.5%. The 30-day average of the long-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) must reclaim 1.0 to reliably mark the end of a bear trend. At present, this metric sits at 0.86.

Using historical precedent as a benchmark, the analyst noted that the supply in profit metric was at least 64% at prior cycle turning points. Until the metric climbs back above these levels and sustains them for several weeks, any apparent price recovery should be considered as occurring within a bearish regime. A sustained move in these metrics would matter because it would show that a larger share of supply has returned to profit and that long-term holders are no longer, on average, spending coins at a loss.

Aging Supply and Cost Basis Pressures

When the price bounce began in early June, BTC older than six months spiked to 12%–16% of exchange inflows, and has since declined to 0.8%.

A cohort of holders who purchased between one month and two years ago have their cost basis in the $72k–$102k range. This supply overhang poses an additional challenge to any sustained recovery. Another wave of selling and deeper capitulation forcing these holders to exit remains a risk factor monitored by traders and investors.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin MVRV ratio has not yet fallen below 1.0, a level that has tended to mark bear market bottoms in previous cycles. While each cycle may differ, the supply in profit and long-term holder SOPR metrics point to the same conclusion — the current price bounce is unfolding within a bearish regime rather than signaling a confirmed reversal. For confirmation, market participants are watching whether these on-chain metrics can reclaim and hold the historical thresholds cited by analysts, alongside price action around nearby supply zones.