Bitcoin's veteran traders are sitting on record unrealized gains, and some may already be positioning for the next market bottom, according to CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju. CryptoQuant is an on-chain analytics platform that tracks Bitcoin blockchain data and exchange flows to assess market conditions.

In an analysis posted on X, Ki Young Ju noted that unrealized gains among Binance traders are nearly three times higher than at the 2021 cycle peak, making the current cycle the most profitable on record for these long-time market participants.

He attributed the shift primarily to spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, both of which have emerged as major buyers absorbing Bitcoin supply. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which received SEC approval in January 2024, have collectively attracted tens of billions in assets under management. DAT firms — publicly traded companies that hold Bitcoin as part of their corporate treasury strategy, such as MicroStrategy — have similarly expanded their Bitcoin holdings, adding a layer of institutional demand that did not exist in prior cycles.

ETFs and DATs Become Dominant Buyers

Ki Young Ju explained that the market has entered a deleveraging phase, with Bitcoin trading in roughly the same price range it occupied two years ago. Unlike previous cycles, crypto exchange traders were not serving as exit liquidity — ETFs and DATs were.

Bitcoin OG traders just had their most profitable cycle ever. Unlike past cycles, crypto exchange traders were not the exit liquidity. ETFs and DATs were. That structural bid pushed Binance traders' unrealized profits to nearly triple the 2021 top. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/k2zjo2n4vZ

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) August 13, 2026

That structural bid has been a key factor pushing Binance traders' unrealized profits to unprecedented levels, Ki Young Ju said.

Profits accumulated during the current cycle have been flowing into futures positions, while some holders have been taking profit. This dynamic has left BTC stabilizing near the average acquisition price of Binance traders.

Leverage Ratio Declines but Remains Elevated

Ki Young Ju also highlighted the on-chain BTC/USDT futures leverage ratio — calculated as futures open interest relative to USDT reserves — which has dropped from over 0.5 to approximately 0.3. The ratio serves as a proxy for the degree to which traders are using borrowed funds relative to available stablecoin liquidity on exchanges. However, the ratio remains above levels recorded before spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, and he described a return to pre-ETF levels as unlikely.

"If ETF inflows continue, expect high leverage in futures again," he noted.

Long-Term Holders Show Renewed Buying Activity

Pointing to Bitcoin's 2023 cycle low, Ki Young Ju cited it as evidence of long-term accumulation behavior. When the cryptocurrency fell to approximately $16,000 in 2023 — a trough that followed a cascade of industry collapses including the failure of exchange FTX in late 2022 — long-term holders stepped up their buying. The taker buy/sell ratio at the time also pointed to a surge in market-order buying at the cycle's bottom.

According to Ki Young Ju, similar spikes in market-buy ratios have recently appeared on OKX and other exchanges, suggesting that some OG Bitcoin traders may be positioning for a rebound.

"This should not be read as a definitive bottom signal, but it serves as a useful gauge of OG trader sentiment," the CryptoQuant founder concluded.

Evolving Market Dynamics

The analysis suggests that Bitcoin's market structure has become increasingly shaped by ETFs and treasury firms, while long-term holders remain a significant source of potential selling pressure. The growing share of Bitcoin supply held by ETFs and DAT firms means that price discovery is now mediated by a broader mix of institutional and retail participants than in previous cycles. If OG traders are indeed beginning to position for a rebound, their behavior could offer an early signal of changing sentiment — though it does not yet constitute confirmation of a market bottom.