Key Takeaways

• VanEck sees Bitcoin nearing cycle exhaustion.
• BTC closed below two key near-term supports.
• $62,250 is now the immediate test.
• A bottom has not been confirmed.

Why VanEck Thinks Bitcoin Is Nearing a Bottom

In an August 13 market outlook, VanEck described Bitcoin as approaching a cyclical bottom after declining from around $125,000 into the $58,000 range. VanEck is a US asset manager known for its exchange-traded fund lineup, and it is among the issuers of the spot Bitcoin ETFs that began trading in the United States in January 2024; its fund trades under the ticker HODL.

The firm grounds that view in its GEO framework, which tracks Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage and On-Chain Activity. Global liquidity and on-chain activity are currently neutral, while ecosystem leverage is constructive. VanEck describes the combination as showing signs of “near-bottoming” and says investors may consider beginning to scale back into exposure.

The argument concerns the maturity of the broader cycle rather than a call on a specific price low. Bitcoin could still trade lower while leverage, liquidity and activity continue moving toward conditions normally associated with the later stages of a downturn.

The view also follows VanEck’s earlier cycle analysis. In June, Matthew Sigel pointed to Q4 as the preferred window for building full Bitcoin positions, arguing that the four-year cycle remained relevant despite growing institutional participation. Sigel heads digital assets research at VanEck. The four-year cycle analysts reference is anchored to Bitcoin’s halvings, the scheduled events that cut the rate of new BTC issuance in half roughly every four years; the most recent halving occurred in April 2024.

Bitcoin Has Lost Its Near-Term Support Cluster

The daily chart weakened just as VanEck’s broader indicators became more constructive. Bitcoin had been trading around a closely packed support area formed by the 50-day SMA close to $63,450 and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement near $63,000. Wednesday’s close put BTC beneath both, and Thursday’s session has so far extended the move.

The break is still relatively narrow, particularly around the moving average, so a recovery above roughly $63,400–$63,600 would put Bitcoin back inside the structure that had supported the recent range. Without that recovery, attention shifts lower.

$62,250 Is Now the Level to Watch

The nearest horizontal support sits around $62,250, an area that has contained several pullbacks during the recent consolidation. Holding there would preserve the broader range despite the loss of the Fibonacci level and the 50-day SMA. Buyers would still need to recover the broken support cluster above, but the July–August structure would remain intact.

A daily close below $62,250 would be more damaging. It would remove the horizontal floor that has supported the range and leave Bitcoin searching for demand deeper in the structure. The larger June–July floor remains around $57,700–$57,900. That is not an immediate downside target, but it becomes more relevant if the support built above $62,000 fails.

A Cyclical Bottom Can Still Include More Downside

VanEck’s cycle indicators and Bitcoin’s daily chart are measuring different parts of the same process. Liquidity, leverage and on-chain activity can begin stabilizing before price establishes its final low, meaning Bitcoin can be late in a cyclical decline without already having completed it.

The recent price structure supports that possibility without confirming it. Bitcoin formed lows around $57,800 in June and July before producing a higher low in August, suggesting that selling pressure has weakened compared with earlier in the correction. The market now faces a more immediate test: the support around $62,250 needs to hold if that improving structure is to remain intact.

VanEck’s call may ultimately prove correct, but the daily chart suggests Bitcoin is still searching for the level where its cyclical bottom will be confirmed.

Disclaimer: VanEck’s cyclical-bottom view is its own market assessment, not a guarantee that Bitcoin has reached its final low. Technical levels such as $62,250, the 50-day SMA and Fibonacci retracements may change as price develops and should not be treated as guaranteed support, targets or investment advice.