Bitcoin climbed toward the $87,000 level on Friday, October 2, 2026, propelled by a hot streak of inflows into US spot BTC ETFs. With US spot Bitcoin funds roughly $5 billion away from setting a new cumulative volume record, the market is positioning for the kind of “Uptober” that token holders expected before the now-infamous 10/10 crash ended seven consecutive years of October gains and pushed the market into a year-long recovery phase.

Bitcoin holders pin hopes on Uptober after seven-year streak ended

Historically, Bitcoin posted monthly gains every October from 2018 onward, which is where the “Uptober” name originated. October 2025 broke that run, marking the first time in seven years that the month closed in losses.

The month also erased all of the gains Bitcoin had made for the year in what CoinShares described as one of the worst systemic events in crypto’s history — and it came just four days after the token set an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6.

According to CoinShares, the forced liquidation wave that followed Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports wiped out roughly $19 billion. The crash was nine times the scale of the February 2025 dip and 19 times the meltdown from March 2020 or the FTX collapse.

Bitcoin ETF flows are still in catch-up mode

Institutional demand has yet to fully recover one year on. Since US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, their daily flows have been the most closely watched gauge of institutional participation in Bitcoin. SoSoValue data showed $102.7 million flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs on October 1 to open the month. Cryptopolitan reported that Q3 2026 was the strongest quarter of the year, closing with $6.49 billion in inflows after Q2 saw $4.51 billion in outflows through June.

Bloomberg’s James Seyffart wrote on X on September 21 — same day Bitcoin funds drew almost an annual high of $999 million in daily inflows — that the average Bitcoin ETF holder was back above water for the first time since January.

Buyers clear $85,000 as shorts get squeezed

Price action this week has tracked the order book more than the calendar. Bitcoin reached $86,857 on Friday, its highest mark since September 23, after buyers punched through a band of sell orders near $85,000 that Glassnode said had kept trading rangebound.

Bitcoin shorts were hit the hardest, with $122 million in short positions liquidated during a 24-hour period, while $210 million was liquidated across the market. Liquidations occur when exchanges automatically close leveraged positions that no longer meet margin requirements — the same mechanism behind last October’s $19 billion washout.

The $86,000 zone carries extra weight because it sits near the aggregate breakeven point for US spot ETF investors — a cost-basis threshold that marks where the average fund position sits between loss and profit. CoinGlass data flagged a cluster of potential liquidations stacking above $87,300.

Glassnode cautioned that the breakout needs backing, writing that higher trading volume and a return of stronger ETF inflows would confirm genuine support for the uptrend rather than a squeeze.

The Fed will determine the next leg

The bigger variable is monetary policy, since rate expectations shape the liquidity conditions that risk assets like Bitcoin trade on. The Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate to a 3.75% to 4% range on September 16, its first hike since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.17% on September 25.

A softer core PCE print on September 30 — up 0.2% in August and 3% year over year — pushed the odds of an October hike from roughly 71% to below 50%.

That puts the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting ahead of seasonality as the catalyst traders are watching. History still leans favorable on paper: Cryptopolitan cited a median Q4 Bitcoin return of 26.59% since 2013. Sentiment is holding in “Greed,” with Alternative.me’s Fear & Greed Index at 72.