Bitcoin rallied toward $80,000 this week as cryptocurrency market sentiment shifted sharply from fear to greed within a matter of days. BTC reached $79,463 during Friday’s session before pulling back toward the $77,000 region, capping a weekly gain of more than 23% and triggering renewed debate over whether Bitcoin has already formed a cycle bottom.

Highlights

• Bitcoin price rallied toward $80,000 as crypto sentiment shifted sharply into greed.
• Galaxy Research identified the 50-week moving average near $82,470 as a stronger recovery signal.
• CryptoQuant said a large Binance futures short squeeze amplified Bitcoin’s latest advance.

The discussion over whether the bear market has ended is playing out openly among market observers, including on X (post). Galaxy Research remains cautious, arguing that a weekly reclaim of the 50-week moving average would provide stronger historical confirmation, especially after a rally driven in part by forced short covering can fade if fresh demand does not hold.

Galaxy Research: Bitcoin Needs to Hit $82,000 to Confirm Recovery

With Bitcoin now only 11% down year-to-date, there is already speculation about whether it has recovered from the bear market, and some analysts have pointed to several metrics to suggest the downturn is over. Analysts at Galaxy Research, however, believe it is too early to reach that conclusion (X).

According to the analysts, the metric to watch is Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average (MA). They noted that it has historically signaled a bear market bottom for Bitcoin with 85% accuracy. That metric currently sits around $82,427, and the analysts believe that if BTC can reclaim it on its weekly close, the bear market is likely over.

“11 of 13 times BTCUSD reclaimed the 50w MA during completed bear markets, the bear-market low was in,” they noted.

Galaxy Research also stated that the 50-day MA is not the best signal to confirm a reclaim. Across six bear markets since 2011, 43 of 106 reclaims using the 50-day MA failed. More significantly, the first 50-day MA reclaim failed in all six bear markets. In the 2013–2015 bear market, Bitcoin also reclaimed the 50-day MA 13 times before reaching its lowest price at the time.

Massive Short Liquidations Helped Drive BTC’s Performance

What is fueling the current rally remains unclear, with analysts suggesting everything from the US Federal Reserve increasing bond buybacks to growing pro-crypto sentiment amid US regulations.

CryptoQuant analyst BorisD has identified the core reason as the reaction to the liquidation of short positions locked in Binance futures (CryptoQuant QuickTake). According to the analyst, the massive liquidation of these positions converted into forced buying pressure, which caused the price surge.

“Bitcoin’s upward move was driven by a mechanical position-closing waterfall in Binance futures markets,” BorisD said. “Such aggressive short squeezes are typical within bear market dynamics.”

They added that the Binance short squeeze pressure value this week was 6.94, the highest since November 2024. In the past two days, over $2 billion in short positions have been liquidated, according to CoinGlass, with $1 billion today alone.

The analyst warned, however, that organic spot demand is necessary, or Bitcoin will experience a major pullback once the short squeeze runs out of steam.

Bitcoin Faces a $82,470 Recovery Test

The immediate technical challenge now sits above the recent $79,463 high. Bitcoin first needs to clear $80,000 before testing Galaxy’s 50-week moving average near $82,470. A weekly close above that moving average would strengthen the historical case that the bear-market low has already formed, though it would not eliminate the possibility of another correction.

The downside case depends partly on whether organic demand survives after short liquidations slow. A derivatives-driven rally can reverse if ETF flows weaken and spot buyers fail to absorb selling, so the durability of the move matters as much as the speed of the rebound.

Bitcoin’s rebound from around $60,000 has already been substantial. MarketWatch reported that BTC has recovered roughly 30% from its recent low while remaining well below its October 2025 record near $126,000.

For now, Bitcoin’s momentum has shifted decisively higher, and sentiment has moved into greed. The next stronger test comes near $82,470, where Galaxy’s historical model would offer clearer evidence that the latest cycle bottom is already in.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets can experience sharp price movements.