Bitcoin ranged near $83,000 on Monday as traders braced for upcoming U.S. inflation data that could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

The asset traded at $83,327, up 0.6% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data, and remains down 2.9% over the past week. Analysts said rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar were weighing on Bitcoin even as bets on an October Fed rate hike faded.

The cryptocurrency has "struggled against an increasingly challenging macroeconomic backdrop," Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, told Decrypt.

"Rising energy prices have reignited inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher and strengthening the dollar as investors reassess the Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory," she said. "Despite its reputation as a potential alternative store of value, recent price action suggests investors continue to treat Bitcoin predominantly as a risk asset rather than a reliable geopolitical hedge."

Traders see a 19.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike — a quarter-percentage-point move in the Fed's benchmark rate — at the Fed's October 28 meeting, down from 22.1% a week ago and 42.5% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Prediction markets Polymarket and Myriad both put the odds of a hike at 17%. (Disclaimer: Myriad is a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan. Myriad also runs markets on Bitcoin's price for October 14 and October 18.)

A shift in rate expectations should in principle support Bitcoin, Bitfire's Jade Shi said, but elevated long-term Treasury yields mean broader financial conditions have not fully eased. That helps explain why Bitcoin has held up without decisively clearing resistance, she added. Yields carry extra weight for crypto because they set the risk-free return on government debt, shaping how attractive assets such as Bitcoin — which generate no income of their own — appear by comparison.

Yields and ETF flows

The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.24% and the 30-year yield at 5.60%, according to CNBC, after hitting 52-week highs of 5.37% and 5.73%, respectively, last week. CoinShares head of research James Butterfill wrote on Thursday that yields had reached their highest levels in more than two decades.

If those yields increasingly reflect concerns about U.S. public finances rather than stronger growth, Bitcoin begins to look "less like a conventional risk asset and more like an alternative to government-issued money," Butterfill argued.

Digital asset fund flows have lost momentum after $11.1 billion of inflows since mid-July, according to CoinShares.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, funds that hold bitcoin directly and trade on American stock exchanges, drew $21.13 million in net inflows on Friday, according to SoSoValue, rebounding from outflows of $487.07 million on Wednesday and $244.13 million on Thursday. Daily flows through the funds are widely watched as a gauge of institutional demand for the asset.

Technically, Bitcoin has been trading mainly between about $80,300 and $87,100, according to Bitfire. A break above $85,600 on stronger volume could open the way toward $87,395, while a drop below $82,000 would raise the risk of a move toward $79,000. Those levels give traders concrete signposts heading into the inflation release and the Fed's October 28 meeting.

"The recent easing of Middle East tensions has provided some breathing room, but the sustainability of the rebound will depend on whether the improvement in sentiment translates into a more meaningful retreat in bond yields and the dollar," Hathorn said. "Attention now turns towards upcoming US inflation data, which could prove decisive in shaping expectations for the Fed's next move."