Key Points

• The Bitcoin-Nasdaq ratio has fallen 62.2%, nearing the 68.5% drop recorded during the previous 2021-2022 crypto cycle.
• The 62.2% ratio decline is roughly 90% as deep as the prior cycle's 68.5% Bitcoin-Nasdaq relative drawdown.
• Bitcoin rebounded from about $58,500 in late June to above $80,000 in August as ETF demand strengthened.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $1.92 billion from August 17-21, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.

Bitcoin's performance relative to the Nasdaq has returned to territory previously seen near the depths of major crypto bear markets. A chart published by Rand Group, sourced to The DeFi Report, shows the BTC/Nasdaq ratio down 62.2% from its latest peak.

You've already seen how this ends.

Bitcoin against the Nasdaq has collapsed for the third time in eight years.

It fell 76% in 2018 and the world declared Bitcoin dead. It fell 68% in 2022 and the world said it again, louder. Both times that death was the launchpad for the… pic.twitter.com/VSYCKNddxW

— Rand Group (@randgroup) August 29, 2026 (X post)

The current 62.2% decline compares with 75.7% in 2018 and 68.5% during the 2021-2022 cycle. Although the present contraction is smaller, it has already reached much of the scale recorded around those earlier market lows. Analysts track the ratio because Bitcoin has historically traded with a high correlation to technology equities, both being sensitive to liquidity conditions and risk appetite; a sharp deterioration in the ratio signals that Bitcoin is underperforming even the equity risk assets it typically moves alongside.

Bitcoin-Nasdaq Ratio Nears Past Bear-Market Extremes

The DeFi Report discussed the measure on August 5 and said its 2026 low may have formed around June 30. Michael Nadeau noted that the 62.2% decline was roughly 90% as deep as the previous cycle's 68.5% drop.

However, the 62.2% figure was already circulating in early August, meaning it represents a snapshot of relative weakness captured before the sharp recovery later that month. The chart also requires an important distinction: it measures how BTC performed against a technology-heavy equity benchmark rather than showing the asset's standalone price drawdown.

Wells Fargo Investment Institute estimates the cryptocurrency lost about 83% between its December 2017 peak and December 2018 low, and later declined roughly 77% between November 2021 and November 2022. By contrast, the ratio tracks a competition between two markets, and earlier this year that contest moved decisively toward technology shares.

NYDIG reported the cryptocurrency fell 13.4% during the second quarter, while the Nasdaq 100 surged 27.7%. By July, the asset was down 32.9% for the year. NYDIG linked the divergence to weaker structural demand, tighter liquidity, and concerns about selling by digital-asset treasury companies. Those pressures left crypto trailing despite strength in growth equities.

Bitcoin's August Rebound Revives Focus on the June Cycle Low

The relative picture changed after June. Bitcoin rebounded from about $58,500 near month-end and climbed above $80,000 during August, narrowing the earlier performance gap.

U.S. spot BTC ETFs added $1.92 billion between August 17 and 21, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025, strengthening demand during the rebound. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in the United States in January 2024, have become a significant structural demand channel, which is why their weekly flow figures are watched as a gauge of institutional appetite.

By August 26, The DeFi Report said Nadeau's crypto outlook had turned more bullish following the rapid recovery. The asset traded near $78,200 on August 30 after exceeding $81,000 earlier.

Macro conditions nevertheless remained important. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks increased expectations for tighter monetary policy after he emphasized persistent inflation. The Nasdaq fell 0.52% on Friday, while Bitcoin dropped more than 3%. Traders also raised the probability of a September rate increase from about 35% to above 55%.

The historical comparison therefore carries context, not confirmation. BTC underperformance has reached levels associated with previous bear-market extremes, but the 62.2% ratio decline alone does not establish a bottom. The June low remains the central reference point. Sustained relative outperformance, continuing ETF demand, and stronger liquidity would provide firmer evidence than the historical ratio comparison by itself.