Tech stocks are selling off while Bitcoin holds its ground, and one widely watched cross-asset indicator is now flashing a bullish signal. In the latest edition of Bitcoin Magazine's Chart of the Day, analyst Sean Hagan examines Bitcoin priced in tech stocks — the Bitcoin-to-Nasdaq ratio — which reclaimed its 200-day moving average on September 18 after 235 consecutive sessions below it, and has not closed beneath that level since. The 200-day moving average is among the most closely followed gauges of long-term trend in both equity and crypto charting, which is why a reclaim after a stretch of that length tends to draw attention from technical analysts.

According to the analysis, Bitcoin traded higher one year after reclaim events of this kind in five of six historical instances, with a median gain of roughly 84%. Hagan notes that this cycle's 62% reset — the peak-to-trough drawdown that has marked each bitcoin cycle — was the shallowest on record, set within a series of four cycle resets ranging from 87% to 62%. He also revisits what the 2021 fake-out looked like by comparison, arguing that mid-cycle dips should not be mistaken for full resets. With only a handful of historical cycles to draw on, the sample is small, and the figures describe what followed past reclaims rather than guaranteeing outcomes.

The segment also addresses the recurring criticism that Bitcoin is merely a leveraged bet on technology stocks — a question with real stakes for anyone weighing bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier alongside equities. Hagan points to a beta that has fallen to 0.75, a statistical measure of how closely an asset's moves track a benchmark, and contends that the leveraged drawdown has already played out. He cites 15 backtest combinations behind the 5-of-6 hit rate, observes that the ratio now sits above its 100-, 150- and 200-day moving averages with the Puell Multiple — an on-chain gauge comparing daily issuance value to its yearly average — confirming, and describes a tougher macro backdrop that includes Brent crude at $113 and the 10-year yield near 5%, levels typically watched as pressures on risk assets through energy and borrowing costs. His stated invalidation level sits at $76,000–$77,000, alongside a "$100K line in the sand." Within his framework, the test from here is whether the ratio holds its footing above that cluster of long-term moving averages, with the stated invalidation marking where the bullish read would fail. He closes by reviewing the drawdowns encountered along the way and laying out why he considers the reset complete.

The full video is available on YouTube.

This article is based on a post that first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine, written by Patrick Green.

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