Bitcoin's midterm election “curse” has resurfaced ahead of the November 3 vote in the United States, after analyst Ali Martinez documented four steep declines surrounding the country's previous midterm elections. The comparison renewed crash concerns among traders, although it provides no evidence that the elections themselves caused the losses. Midterm elections fall at the midpoint of every U.S. presidential term on a fixed four-year schedule — a cadence Bitcoin shares through its halving cycle, a calendar overlap that helps explain why four-year comparisons keep resurfacing among traders.

In an October 24 post shared on X under his Ali Charts handle, Martinez reported drawdowns of 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022 — four consecutive cycles of significant downside around U.S. midterm votes. His figures describe declines around election cycles rather than annual returns, a distinction essential to interpreting the pattern.

BITCOIN MIDTERM ELECTION CURSE

Look at what happened to $BTC around the previous four US midterm election cycles:

• 2010: Bitcoin fell 72%.
• 2014: Bitcoin fell 65%.
• 2018: Bitcoin fell 52%.
• 2022: Bitcoin fell 27%.

Four consecutive cycles of significant downside.://t.co/arfhewEg74 pic.twitter.com/WOIBBYz18C

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 24, 2026

Post: Ali Charts on X, October 24, 2026

Meanwhile, Bitcoin entered the final countdown to the vote above its July low but near a key support band, a setup that involves both historical returns and institutional positioning rather than the election calendar alone.

Four Midterm Drawdowns Span Different Market Conditions

The drawdowns Martinez identified occurred under markedly different market environments. Binance Research, measuring calendar-year performance rather than election-window drawdowns, calculated annual losses of 56% in 2014, 73% in 2018, and 64% in 2022, excluding 2010 because Bitcoin's trading liquidity was negligible that year.

Quarterly figures further illustrate the mismatch between the two measurement approaches. Bitcoin surged 391% in the final quarter of 2010, then declined 16.70% in 2014, 42.16% in 2018, and 14.75% in 2022. Taken together, the drawdown and calendar-period data cannot be treated as evidence of an election effect on price.

Unrelated events also shaped each downturn. The 2014 bear market coincided with the collapse of the Mt. Gox exchange — at the time the dominant Bitcoin trading venue — while a contentious Bitcoin Cash split intensified losses in 2018. In 2022, rising interest rates weakened speculative assets broadly, and FTX, then one of the largest crypto exchanges, filed for bankruptcy on November 11 — three days after that year's midterm voting.

The timing of market bottoms varied as well. Bitcoin reached lows approximately 71 days after the 2014 election, 38 days after the 2018 vote, and just 13 days after the 2022 election. That variation limits any price analysis claiming a fixed, election-driven timetable for turning points.

Bitcoin's $80,000 Demand Zone Faces ETF Outflows and Fed Decision

This cycle has followed a different path so far. Bitcoin rose roughly 40% from its July 1 low near $57,850 to around $81,455 on October 22, a rebound that carried the asset into a demand band analysts view as pivotal heading into the vote. Glassnode identified that demand zone between $80,000 and $81,500, sitting close to the acquisition costs of U.S. spot exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries, while the on-chain analytics firm's broader valuation reference stood near $77,600.

On the upside, price analysis places resistance between $85,000 and $87,500. Martinez separately identified $73,000 as a downside reference tied short-term holders' cost basis, and another widely watched level — Glassnode's short-term holder realized price — stood around $75,800. Neither figure establishes a confirmed crash target.

Institutional flows have added pressure in the run-up to the vote. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs — a structure that only came into existence with the January 2024 launch, meaning no earlier midterm cycle had them — recorded approximately $635.6 million in net outflows on October 22, according to daily flow data. Bitcoin also faces the Federal Reserve's October 28 policy decision, the same category of macro event that pressured speculative assets in 2022, ahead of election day.

For now, analysis centers on whether buyers defend the nearby demand zone through the Fed decision and the vote, with daily ETF flow reports and the documented support and resistance levels providing running checkpoints in the interim. The midterm election pattern remains a historical comparison, and the available data cannot isolate voting as the cause of previous losses.