Bitcoin's "max pain" — the point at which forced selling is finally exhausted — has marked the end of selling pressure in several of the asset's past crashes, according to analyst Sarosh on X. In Part 2 of his series, he examines four episodes in which forced sellers left the market before confidence returned.

Mt. Gox, the 2018 bear market, the March 2020 crash, and the FTX collapse all followed that pattern. Each time, the price stopped falling before sentiment improved. Bitcoin's decline of about 53% from its October 2025 peak now invites comparison with those episodes.

Per the analyst, a recovery can begin while fear is still high once forced sellers are out of the market. Leveraged futures positions, however, can be closed automatically, which triggers waves of liquidation cascades. He argues that watching how buyers respond to the next sell-off may reveal a turn before sentiment shifts.

Why Forced Selling Drives Bitcoin Max Pain

Sarosh published Part 2 of "When Max Pain Arrives, the Turn is NOT Far Off" on X on November 14, 2026. The post links older stock market crashes to crypto and centers on sellers who lose the freedom to wait for a better price.

When Max Pain Arrives, the Turn is NOT Far Off — Part 2: Crypto Markets After reading about Black Monday and the banking crisis of 2009, you may be wondering what those old stock market crashes have to do with Bitcoin. Think about the person who has to sell. In 2009, that… pic.twitter.com/RU6eYSW3zZ

— Sarosh (@SaroshQ2022) November 14, 2026

According to the post, some investors sell because they have had enough, while others sell because they have no choice. Once those sales are finished, less buying is needed to steady the price, which means a recovery can begin while fear remains elevated.

Bitcoin max pain tends to arrive quickly because crypto trades around the clock: news, selling, and reaction can all unfold within a single weekend. Borrowed money also accelerates declines. Through futures, a trader can post $1,000 to control $10,000 worth of Bitcoin. A small drop can erase most of that margin, at which point the exchange closes the trade automatically. If thousands of traders hold similar positions, one wave of closures forces another — a dynamic traders call a liquidation cascade, which fueled the March 2020 crash.

Four Cases of Bitcoin Max Pain

Mt. Gox, then the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, collapsed in early 2014 after reporting about 850,000 bitcoin missing. Bitcoin fell from roughly $1,150 to the $150–200 range by January 2015, a decline of about 85%. The asset then made little progress for nine months before nearing $20,000 in December 2017.

In 2018, Bitcoin found buyers near $6,000 until that level broke in November. By December, the price neared $3,200, down about 84%. Some miners spent more on electricity than they earned and switched off their machines. By late June 2019, the price had approached $14,000.

On March 12 and 13, 2020, as pandemic panic swept global markets, Bitcoin fell from around $8,000 to below $4,000, with automatic closures of borrowed positions pushing the price lower. By March 18, it was back above $6,000, and it went on to reach about $69,000 in November 2021.

FTX, then one of the industry's largest exchanges, failed in November 2022, after Terra, Three Arrows Capital, and Celsius had already collapsed. Bitcoin fell to roughly $15,500, about 78% below its 2021 peak. By October 2025, it traded above $126,000 — a gain of more than 700%.

What Bitcoin Max Pain Signals Now

Sarosh noted that Bitcoin fell about 53% from its October 2025 peak to the middle of 2026. That is smaller than the 85%, 84%, and 78% drops that preceded earlier lows. Still, he said the size of a fall does not indicate where selling ends.

He also pointed to spot Bitcoin ETFs, which received US regulatory approval in January 2024 and have made Bitcoin easier to own — and easier to sell. In addition, he said the Federal Reserve can ease money flows but does not guarantee the coins held in exchange accounts.

He suggested watching what happens when sellers return: Does Bitcoin reach a fresh low as easily as before? Do outright buyers keep buying for several days? Does the next pullback erase the entire recovery?

He added that a turn can be recognized early even if the lowest price is missed. In his view, it stands out when inflation news is bad, war continues, yields stay high, and the Fed discusses rate hikes.