Bitcoin is sending two notable signals to the market this week: on-chain data suggests the cryptocurrency may be forming a macro bottom, while its price behavior is increasingly echoing gold's role as a safe-haven asset.

The observations come from two reports by blockchain data firm CryptoQuant, whose analysts identified what they described as the early stages of a bottoming process for the largest and oldest cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin recently traded at $63,362, largely unchanged over a 24-hour period. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency is down nearly 2%. Since reaching a record high of $126,080 in October, it has shed approximately 50% of its value.

JUST IN: Bitcoin is now trading in its "Cost of Production" zone, typically the sign of a bear market bottom. HODL pic.twitter.com/rXi1kzxSXj — Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) August 12, 2026

"At each major cycle bottom, long-term holders were sitting on deeper unrealized losses than the broader market, meaning the cohort normally associated with the strongest conviction and lowest sensitivity to volatility is carrying greater unrealized stress than the market as a whole," wrote CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV. "The current structure fits that pattern."

The signal is derived from adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) data for long-term holders (LTH) — investors typically regarded as the most resilient cohort in the market. LTH aNUPL has now crossed into negative territory and sits below the broader market average, indicating that even long-term holders are carrying greater unrealized losses than the overall market. Historically, this precise pattern has emerged at every major cycle bottom, including the 2018 nadir near $3,150 and the 2022 trough around $15,500, both of which preceded extended recoveries.

The setup aligns with Bitcoin trading roughly 50% below its cycle high, reinforcing the view that the current drawdown represents more than an ordinary correction.

However, analysts caution against declaring a definitive bottom. In previous cycles, LTH aNUPL fell into much deeper and more prolonged negative readings before a true low was established — a level of losses some analysts characterize as "depression territory." Current readings have not yet reached that extreme.

The CryptoQuant report noted that Bitcoin could still require an additional capitulation leg to push long-term holder losses to historical extremes. Alternatively, stronger institutional demand and a more structurally resilient holder base could allow the market to bottom with comparatively less damage than in past cycles. The approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January 2024 markedly expanded institutional access to the asset, and the presence of these vehicles has altered the composition of Bitcoin's investor base relative to prior cycles.

Separately, Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has shifted from nearly -0.9 in early 2026 to approximately +0.7, according to data highlighted by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who described the move as a return to "digital-gold-era levels." Gold itself has drawn sustained demand over the same period, with central banks continuing to accumulate the metal at near-record pace.

The shift suggests investors are once again pricing Bitcoin as a scarce, non-sovereign asset capable of serving as a hedge against currency debasement, fiscal stress, and geopolitical uncertainty — characteristics long associated with gold.

Investors have frequently touted Bitcoin as "digital gold," positioning it as a long-term store of value comparable to the precious metal. The two assets have shown correlation at various points.

Yet Bitcoin's behavior remains divided. A month-to-date comparison shows it sometimes trading in step with the Nasdaq, acting as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, while at other times tracking gold's movements as a scarcity play. Its volatility, however, continues to run far higher than gold's.

Analysts also urge caution in interpreting the correlation shift. A positive correlation is not inherently bullish, as the two assets can fall together just as easily as they can rise together.

This article first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and was written by Mathew Di Salvo.