Bitcoin may be less exposed than AI-driven tech stocks to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, analysts said, as traders remain divided over whether the central bank will hold rates steady or deliver a surprise hike.

Bitcoin BTC $63,876.62 held near $64,000 on Tuesday after recovering from intraday losses, while AI-linked technology stocks fell again ahead of what some market participants described as one of the most uncertain Fed meetings in years. CME FedWatch data shows markets currently assign a 70% probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged on Wednesday and a 30% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.

The uncertainty has been amplified by Chair Kevin Warsh’s reduced use of forward guidance, according to derivatives analytics firm Block Scholes, leaving investors with less clarity on the central bank’s next move. That matters because Fed meetings often ripple through rate-sensitive parts of the market, but the latest pricing suggests traders are treating bitcoin’s near-term backdrop differently from the Nasdaq and semiconductor shares.

“Tomorrow's FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh's second as chairman of the Fed, is one of the most uncertain in years,” said Thahbib Rahman, research analyst at Block Scholes. Reviewing every Fed meeting since 2015, he said only two have seen markets more divided over the outcome.

Signs of decoupling

Despite the policy uncertainty, bitcoin has mostly held its ground in July even as chipmakers and other AI favorites have come under pressure. That has raised the possibility that crypto is beginning to diverge, at least marginally, from traditional risk assets.

“With the Nasdaq entering July on the back of strong momentum and increasingly stretched positioning, while BTC continues to consolidate near multi-year lows, softer correlations are to be expected,” Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, wrote in a Tuesday report. “As a result, this week's FOMC meeting may have a more limited impact on BTC than in previous periods of heightened policy uncertainty.”

Block Scholes said the divergence between stocks and bitcoin has become more pronounced this month. Bitcoin is up about 6% for the month, while the S&P 500 has been little changed and a basket of semiconductor stocks has fallen nearly 20%.

Rahman said market expectations have swung over the past month as softer inflation data competed with renewed geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and tariff risks. Even so, he said crypto sentiment has continued to improve, even as traders remain focused on whether the Fed’s communication on Wednesday reinforces or narrows the current divide between digital assets and equity indexes.

“Anything remotely dovish from Warsh could lead to BTC's outperformance continuing,” Rahman wrote.