Bitcoin Leads JPMorgan’s Long-Term Return Forecast

JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin for the first time in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, placing the cryptocurrency at the top of its expected-return rankings for 13 asset classes over the next decade.

The 31st edition of the report projects an annualized compound return of 10% for Bitcoin over a 10- to 15-year period. Real estate investment trusts rank second at 8.2%, followed by small-cap stocks at 7.7% and U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%. Gold is projected to return 5.5%.

At those rates, $100 invested in Bitcoin would grow to $259 over 10 years through compounding, compared with $206 for U.S. large-cap stocks and $171 for gold.

Bitcoin’s inclusion is significant because pension consultants and registered investment advisers use long-term capital market assumptions to build allocation models. In the report’s previous 30 editions, Bitcoin did not have an expected-return figure. JPMorgan has now assigned it a forecast and placed it above the other asset classes listed.

The report also highlights the risk associated with that return projection. Bitcoin’s arithmetic return is 20.9%, compared with a 10% compound return, a 10.9-percentage-point difference attributed to volatility drag. The corresponding gap for large-cap stocks is 1.45 percentage points. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility is listed at 55%, versus 18% for stocks. That spread shows volatility drag at work: with annual swings as wide as the listed 55%, the compounded outcome lands well below the simple average of yearly gains.

The forecast does not describe Bitcoin as a less volatile alternative to stocks. Instead, it indicates that the projected return comes with substantially greater fluctuations. Bitcoin’s performance is also evaluated against REITs and small-cap stocks rather than only against gold.

JPMorgan described the currency-debasement case for Bitcoin as “wide of the mark” and placed gold near the bottom of its rankings. The timing of the forecast is also notable: The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, while JPMorgan’s global bond-return forecasts are at their highest levels in two decades. Even under those conditions, the bank placed Bitcoin first by expected compound return. Because that projection functions as a long-horizon planning input for allocation models rather than a near-term market call, the 10% figure now stands as a baseline that future editions of the report can reaffirm or revise.

Crypto Markets and Macro Indicators

Major cryptocurrencies were up between 2% and 4%. Zcash led the listed assets, rising 13% to $1,285. Bitcoin gained 2% to $83,400, Ethereum rose 4% to $2,465, Solana increased 3% to $107, and HYPE advanced 4% to $81.

Other leading altcoin movers included ENA, up 12%; PYTH, up 11%; NEAR, up 11%; and VVV, up 9%.

Oil fell 10% to $99, while gold gained 0.2% to $4,150. U.S. stock futures also moved higher as oil prices declined, with the Dow up 0.1% and Nasdaq futures up 0.6%.

Microsoft, Alphabet, Goldman Sachs, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, McDonald’s and Western Digital joined companies objecting to tokenized versions of their shares trading on the OKX-ICE venue. The number of companies on the list rose from nine to 16 over four days. At 16 names, the list now serves as a running tally of issuer objections to tokenized-share trading on the venue.

Bitwise’s fourth-quarter staking report said Ethereum staking reached a record .8 million ETH, equivalent to 35.9% of the total supply and approximately $106 billion at current prices. It marked the sixth consecutive quarter of growth. Because staked ETH is committed to the network’s validation process, the supply share is a structural gauge for Ethereum rather than a short-term trading metric.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission set the agenda for its first Frontier Forum, scheduled for October 28. The event will examine how artificial intelligence could reshape derivatives markets and how traders’ own AI agents might operate under existing rules.

Mastercard opened early access to Agent Pay for Machines, allowing artificial-intelligence agents to discover services and make payments within spending limits set by humans.

Wallets linked to April’s $295.7 million Drift exploit transferred 25,700 ETH, worth approximately $61.6 million, to Tornado Cash, a cryptocurrency-mixing service, over roughly two hours after remaining dormant for two months.

Zcash developers selected block 3,543,405 for the NU7 upgrade, which is expected around November 5. The upgrade will reduce block times from 75 seconds to 25 seconds and permanently shut down Sprout, the network’s original privacy pool.

ETFs and Token Markets

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $23 million in net inflows on Monday. Ether ETFs posted $26 million in net outflows.

Meme-coin leaders were mostly higher: DOGE and SHIB each rose 4%, PEPE gained 9%, PENGU increased 8%, TRUMP rose 8%, SPX gained 7%, and BONK advanced 7%.

Robinhood chain leaders were mixed. Pons rose 10% to a $195 million market capitalization, AI gained 20% to $90 million, and Cashcat increased 12% to $115 million. Orbio rose 85%, Hookr gained 20%, Boner advanced 25%, and Priors increased 33%.

On Solana, KIMCHI rose 650 times to a $30 million market capitalization, Pill gained 280% to $2.4 million, and Stonk rose 23%. Ansem gained 10% to $100 million.

Papertrade led on-chain protocols in daily revenue at $2.5 million, followed by Pump.fun at $2.18 million and Hyperliquid at $1.92 million.

Pump.fun introduced Kimchi as its latest application partner and launched a new advertising campaign called “pill your friends.” Collector Crypt reported records across multiple measures after integrating with Pump.fun’s distribution. A total of 106,023 packs were opened in one day, double its previous record, generating more than $22 million in gross revenue. Daily active users increased sixfold from 1,000 to more than 6,200, while the number of unique wallets holding at least one tokenized collectible exceeded 20,000 for the first time.

OpenSea made its mobile application available to all users for the first time after a closed beta.

NFT Market

NFT leaders were mostly higher. CryptoPunks rose 4% to 31.3 ETH, Bored Ape Yacht Club gained 8% to 5.99 ETH, and Pudgy Penguins increased 2% to 2.45 ETH.

Invisible Friends led the listed collections with a 150% gain, followed by Statements at 41% and Good Vibes Club at 36%. Fidenza rose 20%.