Bitcoin held its ground near $86,000 on Monday after posting its strongest weekly closing price in eight months, but the cryptocurrency struggled to break decisively above that threshold as United States markets commenced trading for the week. Resistance emerged near $86,570, with long-dated Treasury yields surging toward levels not seen in roughly 24 years weighing on the broader risk-asset backdrop. The stalled advance came despite nearly $2.65 billion in net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs during September, a figure detailed further below.

Bond yields continued their upward trajectory throughout the session. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond advanced to 5.67%, sitting merely two basis points beneath the previous week's peak — a level last recorded 24 years ago. Meanwhile, the 10-year note yield moved back up to 5.31%.

Trading firm QCP Capital observed that bond markets remain volatile despite the disappointing employment figures from the United States. The firm cited elevated crude oil prices and sustained long-duration yields as factors preventing risk assets from mounting significant advances.

American equity markets posted gains at Monday's opening bell, a contrast with the pressure in the bond market. The S&P 500 index advanced 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.7%, driven by market participants anticipating that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its upcoming Oct. 28 policy meeting.

Deutsche Bank's analytical team indicated that this week's FOMC meeting minutes, scheduled for release on Wednesday, carry greater significance than typical releases given the ongoing volatility in bond markets. The minutes may reveal how policymakers assess the current monetary tightening trajectory.

Analysts See a Path to $93,000

Lacie Zhang, who leads research at Bitget Wallet, suggested that Bitcoin might climb toward $90,000 to $93,000 if Treasury yields retreat and inflation figures continue to reflect weakness in the labor market. She emphasized that declining rate expectations alone, or ETF capital flows in isolation, would be insufficient to validate a sustained breakout.

According to Zhang, buyers must push the price above $87,400 on either a daily or weekly closing basis to establish positive momentum. She identified $84,000 and $82,000 as key support zones should downward pressure emerge.

Michaël van de Poppe, known on X as @CryptoMichNL, drew parallels between current market conditions and the previous cycle. He suggested that Bitcoin may reach $100,000 before entering a consolidation phase, with 2027 potentially delivering fresh record highs.

It's very comparable by what we've seen in the previous cycle for #Bitcoin . Breakout upwards, after a massive bullish divergence has been created. What's next? I think that we'll touch $100,000 in the coming period and that would be the psychological resistance that we're… pic.twitter.com/yC9jLryaTS

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 5, 2026

The likelihood of an October interest rate increase declined to roughly 23%, a substantial drop from the 64% probability recorded one week prior. Zhang attributed this shift to September's payroll expansion of only 29,000 jobs, significantly below the 90,000 increase forecast by economists.

The August payroll figure also underwent downward revision, to 133,000 from the originally reported 162,000. During the same timeframe, the unemployment rate ticked higher, moving from 4.1% to 4.2%.

ETF Inflows Continue but Resistance Holds

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted approximately $2.65 billion during September, according to figures cited by Zhang, with an additional $134 million flowing in across the first two trading days of October. While she characterized these inflows as constructive, they have proven insufficient to propel Bitcoin beyond current resistance zones.

In a separate observation, the X account Coin Bureau highlighted that long-term Bitcoin holders maintained profitability throughout the entire market cycle, citing analytics from Glassnode. The account emphasized that this represents an unprecedented occurrence across any bear market dating back to at least 2015, noting that the holder profit metric is currently ascending once more.

You can't make this up. Bitcoin has done something it hasn't done in any bear market since at least 2015. Long-term holders stayed in PROFIT through the entire cycle, per Glassnode. In every previous bear market since 2015, the average long-term holder ended up underwater at… pic.twitter.com/yhskbXoNDb

— Coin Bureau (@Coinbureau) October 5, 2026

Glassnode's Weekly Market Pulse report identified declining buyer dominance relative to mid-September levels, when BTC/USD initially recovered to $87,000 for the first time in eight months. The analysis characterized this as reflecting "moderation in aggressive upward momentum" rather than signaling a trend reversal.

Zhang warned that firmer inflation readings, renewed price pressures stemming from oil markets, or hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve officials could revive speculation around an October rate increase. She noted that any of these scenarios might drive Bitcoin back toward the $84,000 level.

The Federal Reserve implemented a 25-basis-point increase to its target range on Sep. 16, bringing it to 3.75%–4.00%, with unanimous support from all 12 voting members. September's economic projections positioned the median year-end rate at 4.1%, representing an increase from the 3.8% projection issued in June.

This article is based on reporting from Blockonomi.