Bitcoin defended its $76,000 support range last week after a reported $6.3 billion exploit on Binance triggered heavy withdrawals and market-wide losses, according to QCP's latest market note. BTC dropped to $76,141 on Friday, its lowest level since September 17, while the exchange recorded $3.64 billion in net outflows.

Attackers stole approximately $6.3 billion from Binance on Thursday, including 18,270 BTC. Bitcoin subsequently fell below $80,000 in the aftermath, but the 76,000–76,600 support range held for the fourth time.

Binance Outflows Reach $3.64 Billion After Exploit

Binance reopened withdrawals in phases on Sunday, with transfers resuming across 15 networks. The exchange processed $4.65 billion in withdrawals against $1.01 billion in deposits, producing net outflows of $3.64 billion — approximately 2.1% of the exchange's total assets. Net exchange flows are among the most closely watched on-chain metrics, since they show how much customer money is moving on or off a platform during a stress event.

Binance said it had covered 95% of the stolen funds, although the release of its full proof of reserves was pushed back to Tuesday. Proof of reserves reports use cryptographic attestations to let users independently verify that customer deposits are backed by on-chain holdings. The attacker still holds the stolen Bitcoin and has been splitting it into smaller transfers of 1,000 BTC and 100 BTC.

Bitcoin ETFs Record $643 Million in Outflows

Institutional demand also weakened in the aftermath of the exploit. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $643.2 million in outflows on Friday, bringing weekly outflows to approximately $202 million, while October ended with net withdrawals of roughly $516 million.

QCP also highlighted declining returns on the ETF basis trade. According to a Galaxy estimate cited in the note, the strategy currently earns approximately 4.8%, just 0.6 percentage points above Treasury bills. The basis trade involves holding spot ETFs while selling futures contracts to earn the gap between the two prices.

Strategy made no Bitcoin purchases last week but repurchased $204.9 million of its STRC stock. Shareholders approved daily STRC dividends with 99.3% support. MSCI's November 11 decision on Strategy remains another institutional market event on the calendar, as index-provider rulings determine which passive funds hold a stock.

QCP Identifies Bitcoin's Next Price Levels

Bitcoin traded near $78,500 during Tuesday's Asian session after October closed 7.3% lower. QCP identified 76,000–76,600 as Bitcoin's key support and 79,500–80,500 as resistance, with lower levels near $73,100 should that support zone fail.

The firm noted that a daily close above $79,500 would allow Bitcoin to recover lost ground. However, a break below $76,000 could expose the 50-week average near $75,700 and, further down, the 200-day average around $73,100. Moving averages of these lengths are widely used technical markers that traders reference for longer-term trend levels.

Beyond crypto, Brent crude settled at $117.63 on Friday before easing to $109.66. Markets face a heavy calendar this week: Tuesday's midterms, Binance's delayed reserve disclosure, a Bank of England rate decision, and Friday's payrolls report. Each is closely watched for signals on monetary policy and economic momentum, with the payrolls release a key input into Federal Reserve rate expectations.