Bitcoin held above $76,000 on Sept. 17 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, its first rate hike since July 2023 and the end of a hiking pause of more than a year. BTC recovered from lows near $75,000 and traded in a range of roughly $76,400–$76,700 during the session. The limited market reaction suggests that much of the September rate increase had already been priced in, although Federal Reserve projections and a new Goldman Sachs forecast indicate that monetary tightening may not be finished. Attention now turns to whether Bitcoin can defend the August lows near $75,500 — and to an October meeting where both Wall Street forecasters and Fed officials see another possible increase.

Can Bitcoin Hold the August Lows Near $75,500?

Popular analyst Daan Crypto Trades pointed out on X that Bitcoin remains near its August lows as well as the 4-hour 200-day moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA). BTC, he noted, showed little reaction to the US central bank's rate hike. He added that the rate decision and the vote on the CLARITY Act — the U.S. legislation aimed at setting a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets — have now cleared the two major events that dominated Bitcoin's price action over the past week, and that regardless of the outcomes, removing these events from the market could lead to less choppy trading.

On-chain activity, which tracks how many coins are actually changing hands on the blockchain, has also fallen to one of its most subdued levels on record, with just 3.8 million BTC moving over the past 180 days, according to K33 Research. The firm said the unusually low activity suggests that selling pressure is fading, and that Bitcoin is showing signs it has passed its cycle bottom.

UTXO Data Suggests a Bear Cycle Is Increasingly Unlikely

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan noted that the percentage of Bitcoin UTXOs held at a loss — a measure of unspent coins whose last on-chain purchase price sits above current levels — has declined sharply, adding that the magnitude of the drop signals a shift from a bearish market cycle toward a bullish phase. Based on previous market cycles, he said, declines of similar scale have historically represented more than short-term rebounds, often marking the end of the bearish phase and a transition into bullish cycles. He added that once the impact of macro events subsides, it can put an end to the Bitcoin bear cycle.

Another market analyst, Ali Martinez, wrote on X that he is prepared for further Bitcoin volatility following the recent rate hike and would not be concerned by potential sell-off. He identified the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — the average cost basis of coins moved by recent buyers — near $71,200 as his next major accumulation zone.

Goldman Sachs Expects Another 25 Bps Hike in October

Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in October, following the 25 bps hike delivered this week. Federal Reserve officials have likewise projected another 25 bps increase later this year, potentially taking the policy rate to 4.00%–4.25%. The projection matters for digital-asset traders because the Fed's policy path is a recurring input for dollar liquidity conditions, and the October meeting now stands as the next macro checkpoint on the calendar after a September decision that barely moved Bitcoin's price.

The outlook suggests that the Fed's tightening cycle may continue as Kevin Warsh looks keen to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Against that backdrop, the near-term watch list for Bitcoin centers on the $75,500 August lows, the $71,200 zone Martinez flagged, and whether the reduced event risk Daan described translates into steadier trading.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve risk, and on-chain indicators, interest-rate forecasts, or technical levels do not guarantee future price performance.