Bitcoin's latest recovery is being supported by a shrinking liquid supply, with roughly 81% of circulating BTC unmoved for at least six months, according to a report from Bitcoin financial services firm River Financial. The supply trend has coincided with a revival in regulated-fund demand: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $2.39 billion during the Sept. 21–25 trading week. Bitcoin traded near $84,700 as tighter supply and accelerating ETF inflows backed the latest leg higher.

Bitcoin's Six-Month Held Supply Hits a Record High

Approximately 81% of all Bitcoin has not moved in at least six months. That equates to more than 16 million BTC sitting idle in wallets. The six-month threshold is a widely used on-chain dividing line between long-term holders and more active traders, so a record reading means the amount of Bitcoin immediately available to trade has shrunk to historically low levels — a condition under which shifts in demand can have an outsized effect on price. Long-term holders have accumulated more than 3 million BTC since 2020, while River Financial's data shows that only around 300,000 BTC moved out of older wallets during the first half of 2026. The 81% figure is the highest recorded for the six-month held-supply metric, according to the report.

Retail behavior has also turned. Retail investors sold a net 140,000 BTC in the first half of the year before buying back more than 107,000 BTC during the third quarter, a swing that lines up with the broader return of demand across the market.

The report also stressed that Bitcoin's current bear market is breaking historical patterns. According to analysts, the downturn appears both shorter and less severe than the previous three bear markets — a departure from the longer, deeper drawdowns seen in earlier cycles.

Fidelity's Timmer Points to $100K, Then $300K

Since the Bitcoin price rally began in mid-August, BTC has held the $84,000 level firmly, and improving fundamentals and on-chain metrics suggest the asset could be heading toward $100K and beyond.

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, said Bitcoin is looking particularly interesting as it tests resistance near $80,000. In posts on X (1, 2), he noted that a breakout above that level would confirm a double-bottom pattern — a chart formation traditionally read as a reversal signal — pointing to a potential target of $100,000. Timmer added that Bitcoin's power law model continues to indicate a new cyclical bull market is underway now that BTC has held the $60,000 level. Under that model, Bitcoin carries a potential price target of $300,000 by 2029.

Bitcoin ETF Demand Remains Strong

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.39 billion in net inflows across five consecutive trading sessions from September 21 to September 25, marking the strongest weekly performance of 2026. The stretch included a single-day BTC inflow of nearly $1 billion, and although the pace of inflows slowed from Monday's record, all five sessions remained positive.

Spot ETFs hold Bitcoin directly on behalf of shareholders, so net creations translate into coins purchased through regulated market channels — a demand source that did not exist in earlier cycles, since these funds only began trading in the U.S. in January 2024. A comparable inflow surge in August coincided with the Bitcoin price climbing from $64,000 to $81,000. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $5.81 billion in net inflows, indicating sustained institutional demand even amid market volatility.

Going forward, weekly ETF flow reports and updates to River's supply data offer the clearest way to track whether both trends continue.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Analyst targets and quantitative models are projections and may not materialize.

Source: The Market Periodical