Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe on July 22, 2026, shared fund manager and author Lawrence Lepard's view that Bitcoin's (BTC) current underperformance versus gold resembles the market pattern seen in 2020. The post was shared on X: https://x.com/CryptoMichNL/status/2079612367487553742/video/1

Lepard said gold climbed 67% last year while Bitcoin "went nowhere," a divergence that led some observers to conclude that Bitcoin was broken. He argued instead that the pattern is familiar: in 2020, gold reacted first, rising from about $1,300 to $2,000 per ounce, before Bitcoin later moved sharply higher, ultimately reaching nearly $69,000 by November 2021.

Gold Gains 67% While Bitcoin Lags

Gold delivered one of its strongest annual performances in years in 2025, rising approximately 67% from about $2,623 per ounce at the start of the year to more than $4,300 by year-end. The metal extended its advance in early 2026, reaching record highs above $5,000 to $5,589 per ounce in January before pulling back.

Bitcoin, by contrast, has been comparatively flat over the recent period. After reaching an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025, BTC reversed sharply and ended the year near $87,000 to $88,000. That left it with a net decline of roughly 6% to 7%, significantly underperforming gold over the same broader period.

Lepard Compares Bitcoin's Stagnation With 2020

Lepard, author of The Big Print, drew a direct comparison between Bitcoin's recent price action and the sequence of events in 2020. He said gold rose first as monetary concerns increased, moving from roughly $1,300 to $2,000 per ounce, while Bitcoin initially stayed relatively flat before later surging. The 2020 pattern unfolded during a period of unprecedented central bank easing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, when the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet from roughly $4 trillion to over $7 trillion.

"Gold has never gone up 5x in seven months," Lepard said, arguing that Bitcoin has historically produced much larger gains than gold during periods of monetary expansion. He framed the comparison as part of his broader view that Bitcoin functions as "monetary debasement insurance" in a credit-money system that requires continued expansion of the money supply.

Lepard said Bitcoin could reach $180,000 within two years, citing BTC's stronger risk-on rallies. He has also forecast that Bitcoin could trade between $180,000 and $200,000 within one to two years if continued monetary expansion increases demand for scarce assets.

Market Data and Macro Conditions

At press time, BTC was trading at $65,538.37, down 1.3% over the previous 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.31 trillion. Gold was trading at $4,133.69, up 1.52% over the same period, with a market capitalization of $27.89 trillion. Gold's market capitalization remains roughly 21 times that of Bitcoin, underscoring the scale of potential capital rotation that proponents like Lepard envision if Bitcoin captures additional share as a store of value.

Despite Bitcoin's recent weakness, analysts are watching historical market cycles for possible parallels with previous moves. Many analysts continue to describe Bitcoin as being in a longer-term bull market, while Lepard remains among the more bullish voices on the asset.

The outlook remains tied to macroeconomic conditions. Central bank policy, rate cuts and continued demand for hard assets could remain supportive for higher prices, while regulatory uncertainty, economic shocks or a prolonged risk-off environment could continue to delay recoveries. Lepard maintains that Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it a long-term hedge against ongoing currency debasement.