Bitcoin futures open interest has climbed back above $50 billion for the first time this year, renewing a question that often accompanies leverage buildups in the derivatives market: is this healthy, or a warning sign? David Lawant, head of research at Anchorage Digital, argues it is a sign of vitality — and says rising spot volume combined with thinning order books points to the early stages of a Bitcoin market upturn.

Lawant laid out the case in a video interview published by Bitcoin Magazine on September 30, 2026, walking through market-structure signals, options data, and backtesting results from Anchorage Digital. In market terminology, a “regime” describes a sustained set of market conditions rather than a short-lived move — the framing behind his “bullish regime” characterization.

Market Structure Beyond Open Interest

Open interest — the total value of outstanding futures contracts — is a widely watched gauge of leverage and participation in the derivatives market. Lawant's argument is that the metric alone does not tell the full story. He examined Bitcoin's market structure more broadly, highlighting rising spot volume and thinning order books as conditions he associates with the early phase of an upturn, and discussed the “liquidity absorption ratio,” a measure of how the market absorbs incoming order flow. Order book depth feeds into that read, since thinner books take less capital to move — one reason Lawant reads depth and spot volume alongside open interest rather than in isolation.

What the Options Market Is Signaling

Lawant also turned to Bitcoin's options market, which he sized at roughly $60 billion, analyzing the volatility curve — the spread of implied volatility, the level of price swings the market is pricing in, across strikes and expirations — and noting that short-dated Bitcoin volatility stayed elevated throughout 2026. In his view, options pricing can convey information about positioning and expectations that price alone cannot. He also shared lessons from Anchorage Digital's backtests of 37,000 covered calls — a strategy in which an investor holds an asset while selling call options against it.

Rounding out the discussion, Lawant examined how spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and bitcoin treasury companies are reshaping price discovery — the process by which markets arrive at a consensus price. Spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the United States in January 2024 and have since become a major channel for institutional exposure, while a growing number of publicly listed companies now hold bitcoin on their balance sheets. For readers following along, the indicators Lawant walks through — futures open interest, spot volume, order book depth, the liquidity absorption ratio, and the volatility curve — form the checklist behind his regime call.

Anchorage Digital, a digital asset platform and custodian, in 2021 became the first company to receive a federal banking charter from the Office of Comptroller of the Currency for a digital asset business.

Chapters

• 0:00 — Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Tops $50B – Healthy or a Warning Sign?
• 1:26 — Reading Bitcoin's Market Structure Beyond Open Interest
• 3:23 — Rising Spot Volume, Thinning Order Books, and the Anthropic IPO
• 4:15 — The Liquidity Absorption Ratio Explained
• 6:52 — How to Spot a Bitcoin Market Regime Change
• 7:36 — The $60B Bitcoin Options Market and the Volatility Curve
• 8:57 — Why Short-Dated Bitcoin Volatility Stayed Elevated in 2026
• 10:09 — What Bitcoin Options Tell You That Price Can't
• 11:28 — Lessons From Anchorage's 37,000 Covered Call Backtests
• 13:29 — How ETFs and Treasury Companies Are Changing Price Discovery

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This post David Lawant: Bitcoin Entering New “Bullish Regime” According to Options Market first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.