Bitcoin is facing pressure after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signaled ongoing concern about inflation, while on-chain data showed large holders moving in conflicting directions as a heavy calendar of US economic events approaches.

Fed Holds Rates With Two Dissents

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 on Wednesday to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4%, according to the central bank’s official statement. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both dissented, favoring a quarter-point increase — dissents that put on record internal disagreement within the committee over the direction of policy.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has stayed above the central bank’s 2% target. “Americans… are still dealing with inflation that has been running above the Committee’s objective for close to 6 years,” he said.

Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at tokenization platform Theo, said markets had expected the decision to hold. “Markets had the hold priced, but not the hawkish tone,” he told Cointelegraph. At current rates, he added, Bitcoin has to compete with a risk-free return of nearly 4%. For an asset that generates no yield of its own, that comparison directly shapes the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin.

Traders Price In a December Hike

CME FedWatch data showed traders assigning a 78.4% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Fed’s Dec. 8-9 meeting, and a 67.3% chance of at least one hike by March. Warsh declined to say what the central bank will do when it next meets. “A lot of things can happen,” he said during a press conference.

Bitget analyst Lewis Huang said Bitcoin’s next move may depend less on the Fed itself, pointing instead to Treasury yields, the US dollar and broader risk sentiment as the key drivers.

Sygnum Bank chief investment officer Fabian Dori said Thursday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report is the next event to watch. The PCE index serves as the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, giving the release outsized weight in how officials and markets read price pressure. He added that Magnificent 7 earnings will show whether AI spending is turning into revenue.

Ian Weisberger, CEO of CoinRoutes, also pointed to a crowded calendar, listing the Fed decision, tech earnings, $12 billion in Bitcoin options expiring Friday and the upcoming US midterm elections. He said investors are weighing risk-adjusted returns and currently view BTC as too risky for its return profile. He noted that some altcoins, including Hyperliquid and ZEC, have performed well in recent months.

Whales Send Mixed Signals

On-chain data shows whales moving in different directions. Two whales sent $200 million worth of BTC to exchanges over the past 24 hours, a flow that can point to selling pressure. Glassnode reported that whales on Hyperliquid, a decentralized derivatives exchange, now hold a net short position on Bitcoin for the first time since March, after trading long near the market bottom and reversing their stance last week.

Other data points the other way. Santiment tracked 14,942 BTC leaving exchanges over the same window, the largest outflow in five weeks. Outflows of that kind move coins off venues where they can be sold quickly — the mirror image of the exchange inflows recorded elsewhere. During that period, one whale bought 11,326 BTC worth about $903 million.

Bitcoin has been consolidating around $80,000 and recently moved above $81,000, according to CoinGecko data. The PCE inflation report and GDP data are due Thursday, followed by Friday’s $12 billion Bitcoin options expiry.

Together, the figures present a divided picture of large-holder behavior as Bitcoin trades near the $80,000 level ahead of this week’s data releases.