Bitcoin closed the first half of 2026 near $60,000 after declining about 32% from January levels, according to Binance Research’s Half-Year 2026: Macro & Bitcoin report. The report said the drop came as broader global financial markets recorded a third consecutive quarterly loss.

The first-half decline added to Bitcoin’s longer-running drawdown. Binance Research said BTC is down more than 50% from its October 2025 all-time high near $126,000 and has remained below that peak for 275 days, highlighting the scale and duration of the current market downturn.

On-Chain Data Points to Market Stress

On-chain data cited in the report showed that 10.83 million BTC ended the period in unrealized loss, compared with 9.22 million BTC that remained in profit. Binance Research said this was the first time in the current market cycle that loss-making supply exceeded profitable supply, a crossover that analysts are watching closely.

The researchers said similar loss-over-profit crossovers have historically appeared near major Bitcoin market bottoms before stronger recoveries later developed. However, they also cautioned that historical patterns do not prove the present cycle will follow the same path.

Binance Research attributed Bitcoin’s weak performance primarily to macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-specific developments. The report said markets moved away from liquidity-driven expectations and toward economic fundamentals as monetary policy stayed restrictive through the first half of 2026.

Interest-rate expectations also shifted during the period as hopes for aggressive cuts faded. Futures markets instead showed an 80% probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase before December, adding pressure across financial markets.

Macro Conditions Continue to Weigh on Bitcoin

The report said higher real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and tighter liquidity continued to act as headwinds for Bitcoin. These conditions are closely watched by crypto market participants because Bitcoin does not generate cash flow or yield, making it more sensitive to changes in real rates and liquidity conditions than assets whose valuations are tied to earnings or income streams. Although technology stocks recovered on optimism tied to artificial intelligence, BTC trailed many major asset classes during the same period.

A resilient U.S. economy also lowered expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates soon. Binance Research said artificial intelligence was an important driver of first-quarter economic activity. At the same time, core PCE inflation climbed to 3.4%, its highest level since late 2023, reinforcing concerns that inflationary pressures remained persistent.

Those conditions also reduced demand for crypto products. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows during the first half of 2026, making ETF flows a key area to monitor alongside inflation data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, real yields, and the U.S. dollar in assessing whether macro pressure on Bitcoin is easing or continuing.