Bitcoin slipped below the $74,000 mark on Tuesday after the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a 0.6% increase in September. The index excluding food and energy climbed 0.3%. On Binance, BTC/USDT last changed hands at $73,904, down $1,465, or 1.94%, on the day, after touching an intraday low of $73,525.

Core Inflation: The Number That Did Not Move

The headline figure cooled from September, but the component the Federal Reserve watches most closely did not. Core inflation — which strips out food and energy, the two categories whose prices swing too widely month to month to say much about the trend — printed 0.3% in October, exactly the pace recorded in September and August. Three consecutive months at that rate annualize to roughly 3.7%, close to double the Fed's 2% target, and the steadiness of the number is itself the message: nothing in October's data suggests the underlying rate of inflation is slowing.

Shelter did most of the lifting. The category rose 0.3% and accounted for more than thirty percent of the monthly increase, with owners' equivalent rent up 0.3% and rent up 0.2%. Food climbed 0.5%, its sharpest monthly rise since April, driven by a 0.9% jump in beef prices and a 1.0% rise in snacks. Energy added 0.7% after September's 5.2% surge, and gasoline is up 37.4% over twelve months on an unadjusted basis. The few declines came from used cars, down 1.2%, and communication services.

One figure is missing from the report. The BLS collected no data in October 2025 during last year's lapse in appropriations, so it cannot publish a twelve-month change for the all-items index this month. Traders who usually anchor on the annual rate were left with the monthly sequence alone: 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.4% for headline CPI and 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.3% for core.

Why Bitcoin Took the Print Badly

A report that keeps core inflation stuck at 0.3% a month gives the Fed no reason to ease policy faster, and bitcoin has spent this cycle trading as a bet on cheaper money. CPI releases sit near the top of the crypto market's watchlist for exactly that reason: they are a primary input into expectations for Federal Reserve rate decisions, and firm readings push the timeline for cuts further out. That was the macro backdrop at 8:30 ET. The chart, however, was already in trouble before the release, and the inflation print landed on a market that had failed the same level three days running.

Three Failed Sessions at the 0.382

For three sessions the daily candles had been probing the underside of the 0.382 Fibonacci level near $76,066 — a line that held as support through the October range and flipped into resistance once it broke. Each wick was turned back without a close above it.

Tuesday's candle opened at $75,368, reached an intraday high of $75,442, then sold off to $73,525 before stabilizing. The move has carried price out of the band that contained last week's pullback.

Where the Drop Stopped

The intraday low came $333 above the rising 200-day simple moving average at $73,191. Directly beneath it, only $630 lower, sits the horizontal 0.500 Fibonacci midpoint around $72,561. Together they form a floor the daily chart has not tested since the September breakout lifted price out of the $64,000–$69,000 base.

Momentum arrived there already stretched. The daily RSI (14) reads 34.24, under its 38.46 signal line and approaching the 30 threshold that marks oversold territory. Session volume of 7.22K BTC was in line with recent days rather than the kind of spike that usually marks a capitulation low.

The Ceiling Has Moved Down

Any recovery now has to clear two layers that were support a fortnight ago. The first is the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which has just rejected three attempts. The second is the 100-day SMA at $77,575, which price cut through on Monday without a pause. Higher still, the 50-day SMA at $81,451 is curving lower above the 0.236 Fibonacci near $80,403, meaning even a strong bounce would meet a falling average before it reached the old range highs.

Two Ways the Next Sessions Can Go

If the floor holds: a daily close that defends the 0.500 and 200-day zone, with RSI this close to oversold, sets up the conditions for a relief bounce back toward $76,066. That level is where the bounce gets graded — a close above it would put the 100-day SMA back into play, while another rejection would confirm the lower ceiling.

If the floor fails: a decisive daily close beneath $72,561 would surrender both the 200-day SMA and the macro midpoint in a single move. Below that, the chart shows no horizontal level until the 0.618 retracement — often called the golden pocket — near $69,056, which also marks the top of the September breakout candle. That is a further 6.6% below Tuesday's price, and the RSI would be deep in oversold territory before it got there.

What to Watch

Bitcoin has spent two months inside a range drawn by the Fibonacci levels of its summer run, and Tuesday's drop took it to the lower half of that range rather than out of it. The next inflation reading, November's CPI, is scheduled for December 10, and the composition of that print will draw as much attention as the headline: shelter has supplied more than thirty percent of the latest monthly increase and food just posted its sharpest rise since April, so the behavior of those categories will frame how the next release is read. Until then, daily closes relative to $73,191 below and $76,066 above will determine whether this was a dip to support or the start of a deeper retracement.

This article reflects the author's reading of publicly available market data and chart levels at the time of writing. It is published for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile, and the levels and scenarios described here may not play out. Readers should carry out their own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decision.