NewsCryptoBitcoin Breaks Below 50-Week Average After $1.28B Weekly ETF Outflows

Bitcoin Breaks Below 50-Week Average After $1.28B Weekly ETF Outflows

Author: 99 Bitcoins·

Key Takeaways

  • •U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows on four of five trading days from November 2 to 6, totaling $1.28 billion for the week, including $411.9 million on Friday alone.
  • •Bitcoin's Sunday plunge bore the marks of a liquidation cascade, with Ethereum falling 6.9% in five minutes just before Bitcoin's steepest 1.9% five-minute decline of the past year.
  • •The weekly candle closed at $74,851, below the 50-week simple moving average of $75,535, the first such weekly close since the week of September 7.
  • •Since August 2017, Bitcoin had previously recorded five or more straight losing weeks only three times, and in each instance the eventual low came after the fifth red week rather than at it.
  • •Bitcoin bounced to $75,735 within two hours of the Sunday low before easing to $74,224 Monday morning, with key support at $73,510 and the August 21 low of $73,027.
Bitcoin Breaks Below 50-Week Average After $1.28B Weekly ETF Outflows

Bitcoin fell to $73,510 on Binance late Sunday, its lowest price since August 21, capping a week in which investors withdrew a net $1.28 billion from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The two moves fed each other. ETF holders sold through the week, and on Sunday evening a wave of forced selling by leveraged traders took Bitcoin down 2.8% in ten minutes.

Bitcoin traded at $74,224 on Monday morning, down 0.8% on the day. Sunday's drop sealed a fifth consecutive losing week and the first weekly close below the 50-week average in two months.

Sentiment remains weak. The Fear & Greed Index, a daily gauge of market sentiment that runs from 0 to 100, read 29 on Monday morning — a reading that counts as fear.

That leaves the question hanging over the new week: is the selling finally done, or does Bitcoin have further to fall?

BREAKING: Bitcoin's weekly candle just closed below the 50-week MA for the first time in 2 months. Two paths from here: 1) If the bulls push Bitcoin back above the 50-week MA this week, it confirms a classic fakeout designed to trigger panic sells. 2) If we see another weekly… pic.twitter.com/SY5BEjcCvU

— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) November 9, 2026

Post via Ash Crypto on X.

ETF Selling Lined Up With Bitcoin's Worst Days

Sunday's cascade ranked among the year's sharpest five-minute drops, and the fund flows that preceded it tracked Bitcoin's weakest sessions. The funds had a losing week: Farside Investors, which tracks the products' daily flows, counted net outflows on four of the five trading days from November 2 to 6, with a net $1.28 billion leaving in total.

  • Monday, November 2: $398.6 million out, as BTC fell 2.0%.
  • Tuesday: $115.6 million out, even though BTC rose 0.8%.
  • Wednesday: $74.6 million in, the only day of inflows, as BTC gained 3.9%.
  • Thursday: $430.2 million out, the biggest exit of the week, as BTC fell 5.5%.
  • Friday: $411.9 million out, with BlackRock's IBIT fund behind $403 million of it.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold Bitcoin directly and trade on stock exchanges, letting investors buy and sell crypto exposure through ordinary brokerage accounts. The U.S. funds launched in January 2024, and IBIT — BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust — has grown into the largest of them.

These flows represent real buying and selling. When investors pull money out of a spot ETF, the fund sells Bitcoin to pay them, so four days of exits meant steady selling pressure into the weekend.

Then came Sunday. At 21:44 UTC, BTC sat at $75,607 on Binance, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume. Eleven minutes later, it touched $73,510. The worst came in the five minutes from 21:55 UTC, when Bitcoin fell 1.9%. Across every five-minute candle on Binance over the past year — 105,127 of them — only ten fell harder.

The move carried the marks of a liquidation cascade, a chain of forced sales. Traders who borrow to bet on higher prices have their positions force-closed when the price falls past a set point, and each forced sale pushes the price toward the next batch.

Ethereum went first. ETH fell 6.9% on Binance between 21:50 and 21:55 UTC, almost three times Bitcoin's 2.4% decline over the same minutes.

Headlines gave traders a reason to cut risk. Earlier on Sunday, CNBC reported that Nvidia's board had opened an investigation into CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a woman U.S. intelligence agencies believe was passing information to Beijing. With stock markets closed, crypto was the only market open to sell.

Thin weekend trading made the slide worse. A typical weekend hour on Binance trades about half as much BTC as a weekday hour, so the same amount of selling moves the price further.

A Fifth Red Weekly Candle Closed Below the 50-Week Average

Sunday's drop did its biggest damage on the weekly chart. The weekly candle closed at $74,851, below its opening price of $78,354, making it Bitcoin's fifth losing week in a row.

It also closed below the 50-week simple moving average (MA), the average of the last 50 weekly closes, which sits at $75,535. That is the first weekly close below the line since the week of September 7, two months ago. Chart watchers treat the 50-week line as a long-term trend gauge: Bitcoin traded above it through the 2020–2021 bull run and spent most of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets below it.

Five straight losing weeks are rare. In Binance's weekly data since August 2017, Bitcoin had strung together five or more only three times before. Each time, BTC traded below its fifth weekly close within the next 12 weeks:

  • November 2018: it fell another 23% before the low.
  • April 2022: it fell another 54%.
  • February 2026: it fell another 8%, then ended the 12 weeks 15% higher.

Three cases are a small sample. Still, in all three, the low came after the fifth red week, not at it.

BTC USD Price Analysis: Can Bitcoin Hold $73,510?

For now, yes, but only just. BTC USD bounced to $75,735 within two hours of Sunday's low and has since slipped back to $74,224, about 1% above it.

On the four-hour chart, where each candle covers four hours, Bitcoin trades below both of its exponential moving averages (EMAs), averages that weight recent prices more heavily. The 50-period EMA sits at $76,845 and the 200-period EMA at $79,444.

  • Resistance: $75,735, Sunday's rebound high; then $76,845, the 50-period EMA; above that, $79,444, the 200-period EMA.
  • Support: $73,510, Sunday's low; below that, $73,027, the August 21 low.

Traders will watch Monday's ETF flows first. Another day of outflows would mean the funds are still selling into a weak market.