Bitcoin Falls to Two-Week Lows as US Stocks Diverge from Asia Rebound and Analysts Warn of Bear-Market Repeat
Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin dropped 3.5% to $62,369 on Bitstamp, reaching its lowest price point since July 14.
- •South Korea's KOSPI index surged 17.9% in a single session, marking the largest one-day gain in the index's history, driven largely by semiconductor share recovery.
- •Japan and Korea reportedly conducted currency interventions on Thursday, coinciding with the Bank of Japan holding its benchmark interest rate at 1.0%.
- •Despite late-month losses, Bitcoin was up 8.5% for July, representing its best performance for that month since 2022.
- •Analyst Rekt Capital warned that Bitcoin's 50-month exponential moving average at $65,820 continues to serve as key resistance, with price action potentially mirroring the 2022 bear-market rollover.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to its lowest level in over two weeks on Friday, extending losses into the July monthly close, while US equities came under pressure despite a dramatic relief rally across Asian markets.
Bitcoin Approaches $62,000 Amid Month-End Volatility
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD falling 3.5% to $62,369 on Bitstamp — a level last seen on July 14.
US stocks turned red at the open before treading water, diverging sharply from a major relief bounce in Asia. South Korea's KOSPI index ended the session up 17.9%, marking its largest single-day gain on record, a rebound that followed steep losses earlier in the week across global technology and semiconductor stocks.
"Semiconductor shares led both the sell-off and the subsequent recovery, reflecting the index's high exposure to the global AI and memory-chip cycle," trading firm QCP Capital wrote in commentary on the latest macro market moves.
QCP noted that crypto market trading activity increased during the KOSPI gyrations, which it said "highlighted the growing relationship between crypto liquidity, regional equity positioning and broader technology-sector sentiment."
Both Japan and Korea reportedly engaged in currency interventions on Thursday. Japan's central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 1.0%, following the US Federal Reserve's decision to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday. The yen has long served as a funding currency for carry trades — where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets — meaning shifts in Japanese monetary policy and FX interventions can ripple through global liquidity conditions that affect risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
Analysts See Bear-Market Pattern Repeating in August
Despite the pullback, BTC/USD approached the end of the monthly candle up 8.5%, representing its strongest July performance since 2022, according to data from CoinGlass.
Previously, traders had anticipated a relief bounce lasting into August, mirroring the 2022 bear market before ultimately reaching a longer-term bottom.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital — among those who see BTC price action echoing bear-market moves from four years ago — cautioned that the tide may not turn immediately.
"It's likely price will try to maintain these highs in the early stages of August but history suggests price could rollover just like it did in 2022," he wrote in a post on X on Friday.
Rekt Capital reiterated that Bitcoin's 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $65,820, continued to act as resistance following two failed breakout attempts since mid-June. The 50-month EMA is a long-term trend indicator spanning more than four years of price data, making it a closely watched barometer of Bitcoin's multi-cycle direction.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
KOSPI index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView